FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 4/24/23
We're kicking off the work week with a tidy seven-game main slate that begins at 7:07 pm ET. One pitcher stands above the rest tonight, but we should be able to spread things out on the hitting side.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Spencer Strider ($11,200) is still struggling a bit with his control (12.5% walk rate), but he's now logged exactly nine strikeouts in four straight starts, and two of those outings have resulted in a cool 55 FanDuel points. Among qualified starters, Strider's 40.9% strikeout rate is second to only Jacob deGrom's, and that lofty mark is backed by a 35.9% called-plus-swinging-strike rate.
Miami has a slate-low 2.95 implied team total, and their active roster owns a 24.3% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate versus right-handed pitching this season. Strider's walks add a little more risk than we would like, but his ceiling isn't in question. He's easily the night's top option.
Sonny Gray ($10,600) is the one other guy with a five-figure salary, and he should also be in consideration despite a matchup against the Yankees. While Gray isn't getting punchouts at the ridiculous clip of Strider, his 28.3% strikeout rate is the slate's next-best number. Similar to Strider, he's struggled a little with walks (9.8%), and that's contributed to him exceeding five innings just once in four starts. However, he's reached 98 pitches twice, so his workload isn't a concern.
While New York isn't an ideal matchup on paper, their active roster actually has just a 101 wRC+ and 25.1% strikeout rate versus righties this season. Given their success in the split last year, we should probably take those figures with a grain of salt, but it's still a promising sign for Gray tonight.
Alex Cobb ($8,600) is arguably the best value play. While he hasn't quite put it all together yet for a ceiling game, there's a lot to like in his underlying numbers, which include a 2.90 SIERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate, and 59.0% ground-ball rate. He's maxed out at 97 pitches, so the pitch count should be there if he's on his game, too.
The trouble is a matchup against St. Louis, a tough opponent for righties and one that doesn't dole out many strikeouts (21.7% rate this season). Still, a 4.10 implied team total isn't terrible, and the salary is low enough to take a chance on Cobb.
Things could definitely go poorly for Lance Lynn ($7,800) against Toronto -- after all, the Jays have a 4.69 implied team total -- but Lynn's 27.5% strikeout rate keeps him on the radar in tournaments. The results haven't been all that great for him so far, but both a 3.98 SIERA and .404 BABIP show that he has deserved better, and he submitted a 10-strikeout game against the Twins a couple of starts ago.
Hitting Breakdown
The Los Angeles Angels are proud owners of the highest implied team total (5.75) in a favorable matchup against struggling lefty Ken Waldichuk. Waldichuk's underlying numbers leave little room for optimism, as he's sporting a 5.35 SIERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate. The southpaw's 36.2% ground-ball rate combined with the lack of punchouts has also led to him allowing 3.15 home runs per 9 innings.
Waldichuk has a 4.94 xFIP versus right-handed batters over his 11 career starts, so Mike Trout ($3,900) is one of the slate's top plays, and Hunter Renfroe ($3,700) is displaying his usual power. Taylor Ward ($2,900) and Anthony Rendon ($2,800) are off to slow starts, but getting a leadoff and cleanup hitter at these salaries is something we can get on board with. The lefty-lefty spot isn't ideal for Shohei Ohtani ($3,800), but Walichuk's 18.2% strikeout rate in the split means we shouldn't hesitate to include the Japanese superstar, as well.
While right-hander Brad Keller may have a 3.00 ERA after four starts, it sure looks like fool's gold. Behind it lies a 5.08 SIERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, and 14.9% walk rate, and that ERA appears to be the work of a lucky .245 BABIP more than anything else. Keller does deserve a little credit for an annoying 59.3% ground-ball rate, so this isn't a perfect matchup, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have a 5.52 implied team total for a reason.
The other great thing about stacking the D-backs is that they come in on the cheap. Josh Rojas ($3,100), Ketel Marte ($3,000), and Corbin Carroll ($3,200) will all have the platoon advantage and are projected to slot into the first three slots in the order, and we can add lefty Pavin Smith ($3,200), too. Christian Walker ($2,800) is probably the best power threat, and he's easy to like out of the cleanup spot.
On the other side of that same game, the Kansas City Royals get a rare mention on this list. They have the night's third-highest implied team total (4.98) against inexperienced left-hander Tommy Henry. In nine starts last year, the 25-year-old posted a 4.93 SIERA, 17.6% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate, and given that he registered a 4.90 xFIP in Triple-A this season, we probably shouldn't expect significant improvements.
Much like Arizona, this is another stack that will be easy to put together, as only Bobby Witt Jr. ($3,300) has a salary over $3,000. Witt, Edward Olivares ($2,500), Salvador Perez ($2,700), and Franmil Reyes ($2,500) are righties who should occupy four of the first five spots in the lineup.
The Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers, and Atlanta Braves all get matchups against pitchers struggling with control. Matthew Boyd brings a 17.5% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate against the Brewers, while the Braves can take advantage of Edward Cabrera's ugly 19.5% walk rate.
The Oakland Athletics have a 4.25 implied team total that doesn't really move the needle, so hopefully they fall through the cracks against Jose Suarez. The left-hander comes in with a 6.22 SIERA, 11.1% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate, and the A's should have a lineup of almost entirely right-handed bats at low salaries.