FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 4/25/23
We're looking at a nine-game slate on Tuesday, and while there isn't as obvious an answer at pitcher up top as yesterday, there are intriguing options at every salary tier. Cooler temperatures could lower offense in some spots, but you wouldn't know it by some of the hefty implied team totals on the board.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
At first glance, paying this much for Joe Ryan ($11,000) against the Yankees looks like an unwise decision, but early returns from both sides suggest that he's the top play.
Ryan has impressed so far this season, boasting a 3.06 SIERA, 30.5% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate, and while his fly-ball tendencies have led to him allowing a home run in all four of his starts, it's hard to complain about the overall resume.
Meanwhile, New York's active roster is showing a less imposing 96 wRC+ against righties this year, and that's come with the league's fourth-highest strikeout rate in the split (25.3%). This lineup figures to pick up the pace over the long haul, particularly once Giancarlo Stanton is back, but this remains a top-heavy lineup with a lot of swing-and-miss bats.
As Sonny Gray demonstrated yesterday (55 FanDuel points), there's some upside to this matchup if you can work around the stud bats, and Ryan is getting the benefit of the doubt, as the Yankees have the slate's lowest implied team total (3.13).
Out of the other two pitchers with five-figure salaries, I'm more comfortable rolling with Nestor Cortes ($10,500) at his cap hit compared to Justin Steele ($11,400).
Unlike Ryan, Steele is up against a low-strikeout team in the Padres, and he doesn't have as dominant a strikeout rate to begin with (25.3%). Between the left-hander's 56.5% ground-ball rate and favorable pitching conditions at Wrigley Field, it wouldn't be shocking to see Steele perform well -- but he could have a tough time getting enough whiffs to generate an optimal fantasy score.
Cortes doesn't have an amazing matchup, either, but he comes at an easier salary to stomach. The Twins don't have a ton of data against lefties yet this year, but dating back to 2022, they have a 107 wRC+ and 21.7% strikeout rate in the split, so they're a middle-of-the-pack opponent at best. While the Yankees left-hander hasn't quite matched last year's numbers yet, his strikeout rate has been up over the last two starts, so we should eventually see him closer to the 26-27% range he produced over the last two seasons.
Given that both Ryan and Cortes are fly-ball pitchers, they should both benefit from the lower temperatures in Minnesota (48 degrees), and the Twins also have a low implied team total (3.37).
Blake Snell ($7,300) is a clear standout in the value range if you can stomach the volatility.
Snell's yet to exceed five innings in any start, and his 15.1% walk rate is a big reason why. But anyone who's followed the southpaw over the years knows that he could pop for double-digit strikeouts in any given start, and he does have a season-high of nine punchouts in 2023. The Cubs' active roster has the third-lowest walk rate (6.9%) against lefties from 2022-23, which should help Snell keep the free passes down, and the pitcher-friendly weather should also give him a boost.
We can also consider buying low on Jose Berrios ($7,800) against a White Sox that's been below-average versus right-handed pitching this year (86 wRC+) and comes in with a modest 3.83 implied team total.
Berrios may have an abysmal 6.23 ERA, but his 3.64 SIERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 4.4% walk rate suggest he's pitched far better than that. He's struggled with men on base, posting just a 39.1% strand rate, which is something that should regress to his career average (71.2%) over time.
Rounding things out, Charlie Morton ($9,800), Eric Lauer ($9,300), and Griffin Canning ($8,800) are all in the tournament mix at mid-range salaries, facing weak opponents in the Marlins, Tigers, and Athletics, respectively.
Hitting Breakdown
The Toronto Blue Jays have the night's third-highest implied team total (5.14), and there are several reasons to like them tonight.
The matchup is a delightful one against Mike Clevinger. It's a small miracle that Clevinger hasn't been knocked around more in 2023, as he comes in with a 5.68 SIERA, 17.2% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate, and it wasn't like he was anything special last season. While he's managed to keep hard contact fairly low, the combination of a low strikeout rate and high fly-ball rate (44.8%) should lead to more balls leaving the park, and he coughed up 1.57 home runs per 9 innings in 2022.
Slow starts from George Springer ($3,100) and Daulton Varsho ($2,900) have them checking in at bargain-bin salaries, and that will make it that much easier to fit in one of the high-salaried bats of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,000), Matt Chapman ($4,000), or Bo Bichette ($3,600) without skimping on talent. Brandon Belt ($2,400) and Cavan Biggio ($2,100) will have the platoon advantage lower in the order, and their punt salaries grant us even more flexibility.
The Atlanta Braves are another top offense with a plus matchup, and they're showing a 5.28 implied team total versus Bryan Hoeing. The right-hander logged 12 2/3 innings last year, and a 9.8% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate left a lot to be desired. He's shown some improvement in Triple-A this season (29.9% strikeout rate), but we should perhaps take that with a grain of salt after he produced a 12.1% strikeout rate and 5.37 xFIP at that level over 94 innings in 2022.
Ronald Acuna ($4,600), Matt Olson ($4,100), Austin Riley ($3,400), and Sean Murphy ($3,500) are the headliners when salary isn't an issue, and then there's plenty of value in the bottom half of the order. Ozzie Albies ($3,100), Sam Hilliard ($2,800), and Eddie Rosario ($2,200) will all have the platoon advantage. Both Albies and Hilliard are showing some nice power to begin the year, and while Rosario has struggled, the punt salary makes him viable if he's batting fifth as usual.
Josiah Gray now has a 49.3% ground-ball rate through four starts, which is a significant leap from the 33.9% mark he's put up over his career. Although that could mean allowing fewer home runs in 2023, the new approach has led to his strikeout rate evaporating (17.0%), and the walks are still there (9.6%). At the end of the day, it's hard to say whether Gray's actually any better, so the New York Mets are another stack to opt for.
As always, Pete Alonso ($4,400) is head and shoulders above his teammates in terms of power, and his .344 ISO ranks eighth among qualified players this season. Starling Marte ($3,000), Jeff McNeil ($3,000), Mark Canha ($2,800), and Dan Vogelbach ($2,800) give us a lot of low-salaried plays to work with, as well.
The Arizona Diamondbacks actually have the slate's highest implied team total (5.32), though Brady Singer's underlying numbers aren't nearly as bad as his poor results would suggest, and he was a pretty good pitcher last year. However, the hard contact he's allowed is through the roof, which probably isn't a fluke.
The Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals, and San Francisco Giants round out the teams with implied team totals above 4.50. The Brewers, Royals, and Giants are all facing pitchers with strikeout rates below 16%.
The Angels' matchup is more of a wild card against Mason Miller. Miller has turned heads with his lofty strikeout rates throughout the minors, and he had a promising debut against the Cubs last week with a 27.8% strikeout rate. But he also only went 4 1/3 innings on 81 pitches, and Oakland's active bullpen has a 6.17 xFIP -- easily the league's worst mark.