3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/12/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Josh Jung To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The Texas Rangers have a 4.80 implied total against the Oakland Athletics in a matchup that could feature plenty of scoring.
The Athletics are bad. This is not breaking news in any way, but we need to remind ourselves of that every day and look to jump on it via the betting market. Oakland will have Ken Waldichuk on the mound tonight, and he is a pitcher who is struggling this season.
So far this year, Waldichuk has allowed a .436 wOBA, .633 SLG, 3.23 HR/9, 5.64 xFIP, and 46.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are legitimately some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's 13-game slate, and it presents the Rangers with plenty of offensive potential.
Josh Jung is absolutely crushing lefties this season with a 219 wRC+, .487 wOBA, .441 ISO, 44.0% fly-ball rate, and 56.0% hard-contact rate. I love everything about his hitting profile for this matchup, and he is in a great spot for success. As always, I'm adding Jung To Record an RBI (+110).
Michael Kopech Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
When it comes to a pitcher prop tonight, I'm going with under 4.5 strikeouts for Michael Kopech.
Kopech hasn't been anything special this season and is now facing the Houston Astros, who have a 4.84 implied total. It doesn't set up to be the best matchup for Kopech, and it should lead to under 4.5 strikeouts.
This season, Kopech comes in with a 21.2% strikeout rate, 12.9% walk rate, 2.87 HR/9, 5.53 xFIP, 47.2% fly-ball rate, and 39.4% hard-contact rate. Every single one of those stats is worse than the league average for pitchers. He allows more runners on base for free, strikes out fewer hitters, and allows more home runs than the average hurler. It's a complete nightmare and inspires no confidence for his strikeout prop.
Kopech has been over this mark in just two of his last five starts while failing to go past the sixth inning in any start this season. If he isn't going deeper into the games, his chances to rack up strikeouts will be limited.
Plus, the Astros have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate (21.7%), so the under checks a lot of boxes.
Alex Verdugo To Record 2+ Hits (+130)
The Boston Red Sox have a favorable matchup tonight and plenty of player props to consider.
The Sox are at home in Fenway Park, which is one of the best hitter's parks in the league, putting them in a great spot right from the jump. Adam Wainwright will be on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and, frankly, he's not a pitcher you need to worry about.
He's made only one start this season. so let's look back to last year, when he had a low 16.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters along with a 4.74 xFIP, .366 SLG, and 10.0% walk rate. It's really a whole lot of nothing for Wainwright, who isn't much of a threat on the mound.
We turn to Alex Verdugo's player prop to record 2+ total hits at solid plus-money. To put things in comparison, his odds to record 2+ total bases is -120. The total base prop is the safer option since he could have one double and cash it, but I'd rather shoot for the plus money with the two hits.
Verdugo comes in with a 156 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .329 BABIP, .247 ISO, and low 12.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He doesn't waste chances at the plate, he puts the ball in play, and he picks up hits.
