MLB Betting Guide for Monday 5/15/23: Targeting 3 Totals to Start the Week
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Over 10.0 (-110)
There are reasons to believe both of these offenses will have some success tonight.
Boston absolutely has the more challenging assignment. They'll draw George Kirby, the Mariners' young ace-in-waiting. Kirby has some outstanding traits for a young pitcher as his walk rate is just 1.7%. To this point in his big-league career, Kirby leaves a bit to chance, though. His 20.0% strikeout rate isn't tremendously high, and his 9.0% swinging-strike rate says he's done well to reach even that mark.
Of course, the offense of the Red Sox is up to the challenge. Their .796 OPS against righties is the third-best in MLB so far. Seattle (.689 OPS in the split) lags behind, but they'll have the easier matchup facing Tanner Houck.
Houck's 5.26 ERA might be a bit unlucky, per a 4.39 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Still, his 20.6% punchout rate isn't high, either. As usual, Boston's bullpen is a much larger concern; they've got the sixth-highest xFIP (4.44) in baseball.
These gents will have to navigate one of baseball's meanest parks to pitchers, and my guess is at least one gets shelled.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Under 11.0 (-105)
Coors Field is one of the few parks even meaner than Fenway, but we've got a different profile here today.
Hunter Greene appears to be in a tremendous spot to shut down the Rockies. Greene's 3.69 ERA is well supported by a 3.75 SIERA, and the fireballer's 29.1% rate of punchies could overwhelm a weak Colorado lineup. The Rockies' 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the fourth-worst mark in baseball.
Cincinnati (87 wRC+) isn't much better in this split, and they'll draw Connor Seabold. Seabold isn't the most inspiring pitcher, but his batted-ball profile fits well with Coors as he's allowed just a 37.3% hard-hit rate and a 39.2% fly-ball rate thus far. The Reds' .135 isolated power (ISO) against righties is even worse than the Rockies' mark (.137), too.
Surprisingly, both of these bullpens -- two of the worst in MLB a year ago -- have held up well to this point, too. They're both top-15 units in reliever xFIP.
With uncharacteristically cool weather and potential precipitation in Denver, this park might behave for the evening.
Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres
Over 9.0 (-104)
This is my favorite play today.
Quietly, the Kansas City Royals are scorching hot against righties. They've got top-five marks in wRC+ (124) and ISO (.238) since the start of May, so their dismal start in the split has turned around significantly. Many might target the under today with KC facing a righty, but Michael Wacha could be in trouble.
Wacha's 4.87 SIERA and 4.96 expected ERA (xERA) show he's really struggled, and he might be due to give up more dingers soon. Despite an elevated 46.6% fly-ball rate, he's ceded just 0.96 HR/9.
Of course, K.C. is just the secondary ingredient. San Diego sits in a position to smash the struggling Brad Keller (6.19 SIERA) with an implied run total north of 5.0. Keller's 18.0% walk rate should prove to be disastrous against a Padres lineup with the second-highest rate of free passes against righties this season (10.8%).
These are also two bottom-10 bullpens in FIP, so we've also got issues for the under lurking late in this one.
