FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 5/15/23
While there are plenty of notable names taking the mound tonight, only one really checks all the boxes when factoring in both talent and matchup. On the other hand, Coors Field leads a plethora of potential offenses we can stack tonight.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Framber Valdez ($10,700) is fresh off his best start of the year, accumulating season-highs in strikeouts (12), innings (8), and FanDuel points (67) against a competent Angels offense. Over eight outings, Valdez is now sporting a tantalizing 2.81 SIERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 4.8% walk rate alongside his always elite ground-ball rate (62.6%).
Given that the southpaw posted a 23.5% strikeout rate in 2022, and his 11.4% swinging-strike rate is practically identical to last year's mark (11.3%), we should probably expect Valdez's strikeout rate to regress. However, with everything he's doing well across the board, it isn't a fluke that he's tallied seven straight quality starts and has gone seven or more innings in five of those appearances.
The Cubs have been tough on left-handers, but they're more of a neutral matchup going back to last season, and that's backed by their slate-low 3.29 implied team total. Valdez is easily the night's top arm, particularly when considering the alternatives.
Attacking Oakland with opposing pitchers has been a good strategy in 2023, and while their active roster is up to a more respectable 99 wRC+ against right-handers, they still carry the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.0%) in the split. Their 3.78 implied team total against Merrill Kelly ($9,700) is one of the slate's lowest.
Despite a sparkling ERA, Kelly has a solid if unspectacular 4.25 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate, and his 11.1% walk rate is an eyesore. The good news is that he's issued just one walk in each of his last three starts, and his 7.2% career walk rate should further increase our confidence that he can keep that streak up.
Similar to Valdez, Kelly has never been a huge strikeout guy, so his punchouts could also dip, but this is the right matchup for him to post a ceiling game. He racked up 10 strikeouts against Washington just a couple of starts ago, too.
Charlie Morton ($9,800) has pretty meh season-long numbers, but he's posted a 3.16 xFIP, 29.3% strikeout rate, and 53.3% ground-ball rate over his last three starts, so perhaps he's starting to figure things out. All that's come with a 9.3% walk rate, but we're much more willing to overlook that when he's getting that many strikeouts.
This isn't the easiest matchup versus a Rangers team that's performed well against right-handed pitching thus far, but their active roster has the seventh-worst strikeout rate (23.8%) and fifth-worst walk rate (7.4%) in that split. Assuming Morton can keep up his recent form, he could pop for a big score.
After those three hurlers, we have a trio of talented pitchers in bad matchups: Freddy Peralta ($10,900), Pablo Lopez ($10,400), and Hunter Greene ($8,800).
Out of that group, Peralta has perhaps the least dangerous matchup against the Cardinals (3.94 implied team total), but St. Louis' bats have started to come alive lately, and they have one of the league's lowest strikeout rates versus righties (19.3%). Add in Peralta's slate-high salary, and that leaves him as a fringe option.
Likewise, Lopez is facing the deadly Dodgers, who have predictably been one of the league's best offenses again. Although Lopez comes in with the slate's top strikeout rate (31.2%), keeping him on the radar, the risks are pretty obvious here.
Therefore, when factoring in salary, it's actually Greene who might be the most intriguing contrarian play... at Coors Field.
While Greene deals his share of walks (9.1%) and allows a lot of fly balls (44.2%), he also brings an elite strikeout rate to the table (29.0%). Were this game at any other venue, we would happily roster Greene against the Rockies, a team that comes in with the third-worst wRC+ (82) versus righties. Colorado is also missing one of their top power hitters in C.J. Cron.
Coors Field can humble even the best pitchers, so Greene could still get knocked around if he struggles with his control or allows too much hard contact. But he's not the craziest value play on a night lacking many sure things behind Valdez.
Hitting Breakdown
It's a Coors Field night, and it's the visiting Cincinnati Reds that boast the night's highest implied team total (5.66) against a lackluster pitcher in Connor Seabold. Between the bullpen and rotation (23 2/3 innings), the right-hander has produced a middling 5.20 xFIP and 15.9% strikeout rate, and if we look at just his two starts, those numbers are even worse at 5.75 and 9.5%.
According to public projections on FanGraphs, Seabold is universally viewed as a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00, and some even put him above 6.00. The Reds may not be an amazing offense, but even they should be able to do some damage tonight.
Leadoff hitter Jonathan India ($4,100) has a sky-high salary due to his recent hot play, but he's been one of Cincinnati's best hitters (123 wRC+) while simultaneously leading them in stolen bases (8). He should be directly followed in the lineup by Jake Fraley ($3,400) and Spencer Steer ($3,400), who have both put up a .190 ISO this year. Those three are probably the only priorities in this shallow offense, with the rest coming down to which positions you need to fill to round out stacks.
The Colorado Rockies have the next-best implied team total (5.34), but they're up against a much more formidable pitcher in Hunter Greene. Still, despite viewing Greene as a viable value play at pitcher, he's still someone we can very much stack against.
He's issued three or more walks in half of his starts this year, including a season-high four free passes his last time out. Home runs were a major problem for him last year (1.72 per 9 innings), so we should expect those to go up, as well. Greene's allowed a 15th-percentile hard-hit rate in 2023, per Baseball Savant, suggesting that he's been lucky to have given up just four home runs all year.
Ryan McMahon ($3,300) is our best bet for power, and then Charlie Blackmon ($3,300) and Jurickson Profar ($3,400) will also have the platoon advantage. Note that Greene surprisingly has a higher strikeout rate facing lefties (34.6%) going back to last season, though, so you might want to also lean on righties like Kris Bryant ($3,400) or Randal Grichuk ($3,700) despite the modest power numbers they've shown in same-sided matchups lately.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have an implied team total that isn't that far off from what we're seeing at Coors (5.22), which says a lot about their matchup against Drew Rucinski.
While Rucinski's only made three starts since coming over from the KBO, it's sure looking like he might not be able to cut it at this level, as he's recorded a 6.56 SIERA, 8.2% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate. And if that wasn't enough, there's the A's woeful bullpen that will follow him, which has the worst xFIP (5.24) among active rosters.
Christian Walker ($3,500), Corbin Carroll ($3,300), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,200), and Ketel Marte ($3,100) have all posted a .200 ISO or better this year, and both Caroll and Marte will have the platoon advantage. Caroll also leads the team in stolen bases (10), further boosting his upside. Everyone else in the lineup has a salary below $3,000 each, making this stack even more appealing.
The San Diego Padres are another non-Coors team with a fantastic pitching matchup. They're facing Brad Keller, who's been extraordinarily lucky to have a 4.31 ERA after eight starts. That's because outside of a 57.4% ground-ball rate, Keller's been dreadful, posting a 6.19 SIERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, and 18.0% walk rate. Incredibly, he's walked four or more batters in six of his appearances.
Unfortunately, that high ground-ball rate does lower the chances of the home run ball, which is something to consider before going all-in on San Diego. On the bright side, most of their batters tend to have low ground-ball rates, which should help the outlooks of guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,700), Manny Machado ($2,900), Jake Cronenworth ($2,800), Matt Carpenter ($2,600), and Trent Grisham ($2,700).
You can make the case for stacking quite a few offenses tonight, but the Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves are two more with particularly good outlooks. The Blue Jays are getting a bullpen game in which they should see Jhony Brito as the bulk reliever; Brito's produced a 5.36 SIERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate this year. Atlanta will see Cody Bradford in his MLB debut, and despite his success in Triple-A this season, a 5.19 xFIP indicates he's probably not ready for primetime.
Considering all the options, teams like the Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, and New York Yankees could fall through the cracks against big name pitchers who have struggled this year in Noah Syndergaard, Jack Flaherty, and Alek Manoah, respectively.
