MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 5/18/23

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin May 18th, 2023
It hasn't been smooth sailing for Dylan Cease this season, but he emerges as a top option on Thursday's small slate. Who else should we build around today?

Thursday's main slate gets going bright and early -- at least by DFS standards -- at 12:35 pm ET and features four afternoon games.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

While we have some intriguing rookies pitching today, Dylan Cease ($9,800) is the first arm to look at.

We haven't seen the best version of Cease in 2023, but his 25.5% strikeout rate will play on this slate, and this isn't a bad matchup against Cleveland, who should be without Jose Ramirez (bereavement) again on Thursday. The Guardians' active roster has a league-worst 73 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and has been closer to a neutral matchup for strikeouts compared to last season.

The key will be whether Cease can work around a 10.4% walk rate that continues to hold him back. He's gone six or more innings just three times in nine starts, and his 4.27 SIERA could be better. Still, in the context of this offering, he's the best we've got, and he gets top honors in numberFire's projections.

For a value play, one of those aforementioned rookies, Eury Perez ($8,500), looks like our best bet.

Perez is one of the sport's top pitching prospects, and he had an encouraging debut last week, recording 7 strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings with a 17.0% swinging-strike rate. He allowed a pair of home runs and didn't pitch as deep into the game as we would like, but this was a pretty good result for someone who had never pitched above even Double-A before. His 88-pitch workload suggests that he can get to six innings in the right scenario, too.

Perez had a 35.9% strikeout rate and 21.2% swinging-strike rate in Double-A prior to his call-up, and public projections on FanGraphs are generally pretty favorable for someone with so little experience. The Nationals' active roster has an upside-suppressing 20.3% strikeout rate versus righties, but they also have the third-lowest walk rate (6.8%) and second-worst wRC+ (74). Washington also has the second-lowest implied team total (3.68) this afternoon. Despite the unknowns, there's a lot to dig about Perez today.

Logan Allen ($9,400) and Tyler Wells ($9,200) are two other guys to have on your radar.

Allen, another rookie, has put together a 3.96 SIERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate over four starts, and he's gone 104, 92, and 96 pitches over his last three. He doesn't have a great matchup against a righty-heavy White Sox lineup, but Chicago's active roster has a 25.9% strikeout rate versus left-handers this season.

Wells has a sparkling 2.68 ERA, but his underlying metrics fall in that "solid if unspectacular" category, with a 4.14 SIERA and 22.4% strikeout rate. His matchup is kind of in the middle against the Angels, too. He's coming off his best start of the season (55 FanDuel points), though, and L.A. has the slate's third-lowest implied team total (3.99).

A third rookie, Taj Bradley ($10,200), produced a tantalizing 38.3% strikeout rate across three starts in April but was horrendous in Triple-A after getting demoted. While it isn't crazy to take a shot here, a slate-high salary and matchup against the Mets leave him as a fringe option at best.

Hitting Breakdown

The Baltimore Orioles have by far the highest implied team total (4.89) due to their matchup against struggling left-hander Tyler Anderson.

Anderson had a career-best season with the Dodgers in 2022, but none of that has carried over to this year, as he's posted a 5.78 SIERA, 14.4% strikeout rate, and 10.9% walk rate over seven starts. A 46.3% fly-ball rate against right-handed batters has contributed to giving up 1.59 home runs per 9 innings in the split, as well.

The Orioles have loads of value in their lineup, with Anthony Santander ($3,000) and Ryan Mountcastle ($3,000) being the favorites to attack the southpaw.

Tylor Megill has somehow put up a respectable 4.02 ERA despite a 17.3% strikeout rate and 12.3% walk rate, and his 5.44 SIERA is probably closer to how he's actually performed. The Tampa Bay Rays should be able to take advantage of numbers like that, and they've been lethal pretty much from top to bottom this season.

Given how good they are across the board, we don't have to be too picky with our stacks, but Brandon Lowe ($2,900) is appealing at his salary as the likely number three or four hitter, and Harold Ramirez ($3,100) could bat leadoff if Yandy Diaz remains out.

Nothing is really off the table on the small slate, but the Miami Marlins and New York Mets are two other stacks that stand out. Although the Marlins are a meh offense, they have one of the better matchups versus Trevor Williams, whose 16.5% strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. The Mets face a total wild card in Taj Bradley, but if his Triple-A struggles carry over to today, Pete Alonso ($3,600) and friends will have a field day.