FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 5/21/23
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process.
Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | Framber Valdez | HOU | 8.5 | 300 | 3.06 |
| BAL | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 8.5 | 168 | 3.64 |
| MIL | Jalen Beeks | TB | 8 | 126 | 3.7 |
| COL | Andrew Heaney | TEX | 9 | 180 | 3.78 |
| STL | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 8.5 | 124 | 3.95 |
| DET | Josiah Gray | WSH | 8.5 | 116 | 4.02 |
| PIT | Merrill Kelly | ARI | 8.5 | 110 | 4.07 |
| KC | Lance Lynn | CHW | 9.5 | 150 | 4.19 |
| TB | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 8 | -148 | 4.3 |
| CHC | Taijuan Walker | PHI | 9 | 102 | 4.39 |
| ARI | Roansy Contreras | PIT | 8.5 | -130 | 4.43 |
| ATL | George Kirby | SEA | 9 | -106 | 4.48 |
| WSH | Joey Wentz | DET | 8.5 | -136 | 4.48 |
| SEA | Jared Shuster | ATL | 9 | -110 | 4.52 |
| LAD | Jack Flaherty | STL | 8.5 | -146 | 4.55 |
| PHI | Justin Steele | CHC | 9 | -120 | 4.61 |
| TOR | Dean Kremer | BAL | 8.5 | -200 | 4.86 |
| TEX | Connor Seabold | COL | 9 | -215 | 5.22 |
| CHW | Carlos Hernandez | KC | 9.5 | -178 | 5.31 |
| HOU | James Kaprielian | OAK | 8.5 | -375 | 5.44 |
Pitchers
Framber Valdez ($11,200)
Despite producing just 24.0 FanDuel points in his most recent start, Valdez's salary has increased by 4.6% against an Oakland Athletics' lineup with a 21.3% K-rate and a .335 on-base percentage against left-handers.
In 57.0 innings this season, the Astros' southpaw has really been in a grove through nine starts, accounting for a career-best 2.57 expected Independent Fielding Pitching rating (xFIP), a 11.5% swinging strike rate, and eight or more strikeouts in 55% of his appearances.
With Sunday's top projection at 40.7 FanDuel points, an appealing 3.63 value rating, and a 6.96 strikeout prediction, there are several reasons the 29-year old rates as an elite option even at his highest salary this season.
Kevin Gausman ($11,200)
After recording his fourth double digit strikeout performance, Gausman will challenge a Baltimore Orioles' offense with a .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 23.3% K-rate including three hitters with strikeout percentages over 24.9% and contact rates ranging from 70.6% to 74.0%.
Through 55.0 innings, Toronto's right-hander has been in top form this season, producing an impressive 2.35 xFIP, a 14.4% swinging strike percentage, and nine or more strikeouts in five of his nine starts.
While Gausman's salary has jumped to his highest point during 2023, the Blue Jays' veteran still rates fifth in value with a 3.55 rating and second overall with a 39.7 fantasy projection and 7.4 expected strikeouts.
Andrew Heaney ($9,400)
Since the start of May, the Rangers' left-hander has accounted for improved metrics in three starts this month, recording a 3.64 xFIP, a 11.0% swinging strike rate, and a 29.2% strikeout percentage in 17.1 innings.
When considering his underrated opportunity versus a Colorado Rockies' unit with six projected hitters with K-rates over 26.0% and contact percentages under 74.1%, Heaney could be a sneaky option on Sunday with today's fifth highest projection at 32.1 FanDuel points and 6.31 expected strikeouts.
Lance Lynn ($8,400)
At a salary ranked 11th among his position, Lynn is second among today's pitchers in value with a 4.24 rating and a 35.6 fantasy projection versus a Kansas City Royals' lineup with a 22.0% K-rate and a .289 wOBA.
Although his matchup is the most appealing part of Lynn's current profile, the 36-year old offers hidden upside with expected metrics (3.68 xFIP) almost three runs lower than his 6.66 ERA and an overall efficient 26.6% K-rate.
Stacks
Riding high off a six game winning streak, the Astros are today's top stack with a 5.44 expected run total against Oakland's right-hander James Kaprielian.
In 23.0 innings this season, the Athletics' fourth-year starter has been in horrible form, recording an ugly 6.03 xFIP, a 12.9% walk percentage, and an opposing 9.7% barrel rate.
To best attack his main struggles occurring versus left-handed bats (5.36 xFIP, .351 wOBA), ideal Houston stacks should feature Yordan Alvarez (18.7% barrel rate, .408 expected wOBA) and Kyle Tucker (.398 expected wOBA, 10.3% barrel rate) while Alex Bregman (.343 expected wOBA, .418 expected slugging), Jose Altuve (.321 expected wOBA), and Jeremy Pena (8.2% career barrel rate) can also be included.
In a matchup against Carlos Hernandez, Chicago's veteran lineup offers several options against a low-strikeout right-hander with wild control (11.0% career walk rate), a below-average 5.05 career xFIP, and a below-average bullpen (4.13 xFIP) behind him.
White Sox combinations should contain their best right-handed bats to take advantage of his reverse splits (.356 wOBA, 5.00 xFIP) including Tim Anderson (.281 expected average), Luis Robert (13.9% barrel rate), Andrew Vaughn (.340 expected wOBA, 8.8% barrel rate), and Jake Burger (.301 expected average, 24.6% barrel rate).
After scoring 30 runs in their last four games, the Rangers' red-hot bats have another chance to sustain their offense versus journeyman Connor Seabold and his glaring inability to get outs against left-handed hitting (6.91 xFIP, 12.9% K-rate).
Texas stacks should revolve around their top and middle of their order including Corey Seager (.322 expected average, 20.5% barrel rate), Nathaniel Lowe (.277 expected average, 7.2% barrel rate) and Jonah Heim (.292 expected average, 11.1% barrel rate) while Adolis Garcia (16.0% barrel rate, .371 expected wOBA), Josh Jung (11.5% barrel rate, and Ezequiel Duran (.309 expected average, 11.2% barrel rate) are ideal batted ball form.
