MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 6/1/23: An Under Built on Familiarity With Hitter-Friendly Parks
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Marlins ML (+102)
San Diego and Miami hold their rubber match today, and the Marlins at plus money feel like a gift in this spot.
It's Jesus Luzardo's turn for Miami, and Luzardo has remained pretty solid in his second full year with the Fish. His 3.68 ERA is well-supported by a 3.78 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and he's posted a phenomenal 13.6% swinging-strike rate. That's a ton of whiffs. This is San Diego's better split, but their 105 wRC+ versus left-handers isn't overbearing.
With a 4.13 SIERA and 10.8% whiff rate, Joe Musgrove hasn't been far behind on the Dads' side, and the Marlins' offense is improving in this split. After amassing an 84 wRC+ in April against righties, they lept to a 94 wRC+ this past month, led by breakouts by Jorge Soler and Bryan De La Cruz.
In a closer affair, I trust the Marlins' bullpen more. Their reliever xFIP (4.14) is a bit better than San Diego's (4.26). I've got this closer to a pick'em, opening value on the juice.
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox
Under 9.0 (-104)
The hitting environment here is raucous, but everything else about this game screams "under" at this lofty 9.0-run total.
Of course, there is only one Reds starter who inspires confidence in unders, and it's fireballer Hunter Greene, who is set to toe the slab tonight. Greene's breakout campaign might be a bit undersold by his ERA thanks to his hitter-friendly home ballpark, but a 3.33 SIERA and 14.4% swinging-strike rate are signs of a bonafide ace.
It'll help him out that the Red Sox have cooled a bit against righties (99 wRC+ in May), too. Cincinnati (121 wRC+ versus lefties in May) is the more dangerous side to this total, but they did pluck just one run off southpaw James Paxton in five innings last night, so that should give opposing starter Chris Sale plenty of confidence.
Despite the 4.72 ERA linked to his own hitter's paradise, Sale seems fully back from the injuries that have plagued his past couple of years, totaling a 3.46 SIERA and 12.5% swinging-strike rate in 10 appearances to begin the year.
These are two dominant starters that deserve a total far lower than nine. While the Boston bullpen (4.50 xFIP) is a bit shaky, the listed arms should buy us enough cushion to cruise well under this total if they're on point today.
