FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/5/23

Monday's slate includes the 6:40 pm ET games, giving us seven in total for the main slate. This is a tough night for pitching, but that does open things up for a variety of plus hitting matchups.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

It hasn't been the smoothest campaign for Aaron Nola ($10,000), but he's looking like our best bet on a slate that's lacking at pitcher.

While Nola's numbers are down across the board, a soft matchup against the Tigers should help prop him up tonight. Detroit's active roster ranks last in wRC+ (73) and ISO (.104) versus right-handed pitching, and they're a solid opponent for punchouts (23.4% strikeout rate). The Tigers' slate-worst 3.46 implied team total should also encourage us.

Despite up-and-down results, Nola remains an innings-eater who rarely goes fewer than six frames, dropping below that threshold just twice in 12 starts. His underlying metrics showed some promise in May, too, as he posted a 4.00 xFIP, 23.6% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over his last six starts. Arguably his biggest issue has been home runs (1.45 allowed per 9 innings), but that should be less of a concern against a team so low on power.

Nola piled up a season-best 10 strikeouts a few starts back against the Cubs, which is hopefully a sign that he can get back to being the high-strikeout pitcher of years past. This is certainly the right spot for another ceiling game.

Braxton Garrett ($9,000) has better season-long numbers than Nola, and this isn't the most imposing matchup against the Royals. But what holds him back from leapfrogging Nola is pitch count; Garrett typically goes just 80-plus pitches and has gone above 85 only once. As a result, the left-hander has cracked six innings one time all year.

Still, Garrett has recorded a 3.58 SIERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 48.4% ground-ball rate this season, so he's capable of putting together a strong fantasy outing with a little luck and efficiency.

Blake Snell ($9,500) hasn't been worth the trouble in 2023, but I guess he needs to be considered tonight. Given that he normally has a strikeout rate of around 30% or better, this year's 24.6% clip should theoretically go up. However, he's also been plagued by an awful 13.7% walk rate, issuing multiple walks in all but 2 of his 11 starts and further sapping him of the upside we usually see.

His matchup is a mixed bag versus the Cubs, a team with a 26.8% strikeout rate against lefties while also owning a fairly high 9.6% walk rate. This could end poorly, as it often has this season for Snell, but on a slate lacking slam dunk plays, he's in the mix.

Considering the alternatives, you could do worse than roll the dice with Andrew Abbott ($8,000) in his MLB debut. This season, the Reds left-hander has mowed down Triple-A competition (seven starts) with a 34.8% strikeout rate, and he was virtually unstoppable in Double-A (three starts) with an absurd 64.3% strikeout rate. However, Abbott also produced a less-than-ideal 9.0% walk rate and allowed 1.88 home runs per 9 innings in Triple-A, so he was far from perfect.

A matchup against the Brewers, who have an 87 wRC+ and 25.0% strikeout rate versus southpaws, will surely help, though. The risks are obvious here, but there's plenty of potential, too.

Hitting Breakdown

As you might expect from the lack of upper-tier pitching, there's a lot more to like for our bats. Just four teams come in below a 4.30 implied team total tonight.

The Texas Rangers have one of the higher marks (5.01) and are up against Adam Wainwright, who could finally be hitting a wall at age 41. Wainwright has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but he's dropped to a 12.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% swinging-strike rate over five starts, and the result has been a 5.39 SIERA.

If you have the funds, Corey Seager ($3,900) and Adolis Garcia ($3,600) are top options, and leadoff man Marcus Semien ($4,000) is on a 23-game hit streak. Nathaniel Lowe ($3,200), Josh Jung ($3,300), and Jonah Heim ($3,300) offer some pop at mid-range salaries.

The Houston Astros get a struggling Alek Manoah, who continues to have a difficult time finding the plate. Over 12 starts, Manoah's put up a 5.86 SIERA, 17.6% strikeout rate, and 15.0% walk rate while allowing 1.56 home runs per 9 innings. If anything, Manoah's numbers have actually gotten worse as the season's gone, and he hasn't found success against either side of the plate.

Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) and Kyle Tucker ($3,400) are the usual starting points to any Houston stack, and the rest of the lineup comes at pretty reasonable salaries. Jeremy Pena ($3,200) and Alex Bregman ($3,200) bat high in the order, and while Mauricio Dubon ($2,800) isn't super exciting on his own, we could see him in the leadoff spot if Jose Altuve is out again.

In that same game, the Toronto Blue Jays have the night's highest implied team total (5.10) against right-hander Brandon Bielak. Bielek is getting pummelled for home runs by right-handed batters, though that might be a little flukey given that he has a 3.60 xFIP, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 53.1% ground-ball rate in the split. On the other hand, he has a 5.29 xFIP, 12.7% strikeout rate, and 41.5% ground-ball rate versus lefties.

Those stark splits prop up guys like Daulton Varsho ($3,100) and Brandon Belt ($2,600) as value plays, but most of the top Toronto hitters bat right-handed, making this a somewhat tricky stack. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,600), Bo Bichette ($3,500), and George Springer ($3,300) all have low strikeout rates, though, so they may have the best shot at breaking through.

The St. Louis Cardinals could fly under the radar due to their middle-of-the-road 4.49 implied team total, but they might not be getting enough credit against Martin Perez. The veteran left-hander has recorded a 4.91 xFIP, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 41.5% ground-ball rate versus righties this year, and he got knocked around multiple times this past month. We could see nearly an entire lineup of righty sticks for St. Louis, and outside of Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900), they'll come in at cheap salaries, too.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds are two other teams to consider. The Phillies face left-hander Joey Wentz, who isn't getting strikeouts in same-sided matchups (12.5%) and is giving up dingers to righties (2.25 home runs per 9 innings). Julio Teheran has allowed just one earned run over 11 innings, but a 5.51 SIERA and 11.9% strikeout rate suggest that this is a big-time fluke, and the Reds are positioned to take advantage.