3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/9/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Royce Lewis To Hit a Home Run (+440)
The Minnesota Twins have a 4.11 implied run total tonight, but that might not be high enough.
A favorable matchup could help the Twins push past that implied total, and some of that scoring could come via the long ball. They are up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who will have Yusei Kikuchi on the mound. Whether it's this season or the last, Kikuchi struggles with home runs, and that's where we want to attack him.
This season, Kikuchi allows a .372 wOBA, .530 SLG, 4.36 xFIP, 2.54 HR/9, 43.0% fly-ball rate, and 39.3% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting and puts the opposing lineup in a great spot.
We turn to Royce Lewis, who is an interesting young player for the Twins with some upside. Last season, Lewis made his MLB debut but played only 12 games before an ACL injury. He missed the start of this season but returned to the lineup a few weeks ago and has just eight games played this season. Long story short, he has a very small sample size over two years.
However, in this time, he has racked up a 154 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .167 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. It's a small sample but I'm hopeful -- he isn't the Twins number two prospect for nothing. As usual, I'm also adding on Lewis To Record an RBI (+170).
Yu Darvish Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Yu Darvish is a good pitcher, but tonight's not a great matchup.
Darvish is rocking a 26.4% strikeout rate, 11.1% swinging-strike rate, and 30.2% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate. Those are good numbers! He's been doing this for many years but tonight is not the time we should be seeing it.
He's at Coors Field, presenting the toughest possible hitting environment for a pitcher. Coors Field has the largest negative impact on strikeouts of any park in the league.
Not to mention the fact the Rockies have a 19.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers while at home this season, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. They don't strike out a ton and can always run a pitcher out of the game early by scoring runs.
Matt Olson To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)
The Atlanta Braves have a juicy 5.43 implied run total tonight, and we want to grab some player props from their offense.
That total is due to them taking on Josiah Gray, a pitcher we should be attacking essentially every time he is on the mound. This season, Gray has a 5.64 xFIP, 20.3% strikeout rate, 16.2% walk rate, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and .301 SLG to left-handed hitters. Gray just isn't a good pitcher -- that's the best way to put it.
The Braves' lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and we are looking at Matt Olson. This year, Olson is crushing righties to the tune of a 152 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .317 ISO, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 37.4% hard-contact rate. The Braves are expected to plate plenty of runs tonight and getting exposure to this lineup is always a good idea.
