3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/14/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Justin Turner To Hit a Home Run (+560)
The Boston Red Sox have a great matchup tonight to flex their offense.
With a slate-high 5.56 implied run total, the Sox are going to be a popular team to target tonight for some player props. They have a soft matchup, they have good hitters, and that all leads to potential value with their player props. Add in a touch of wind blowing out to left field, and we're rocking with a great spot for offense.
They are taking on Austin Gomber, who comes in allowing a .397 wOBA, .564 SLG, 5.21 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 35.2% fly-ball rate, and 36.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. He's getting crushed by righties, and this is the exact matchup we should be looking to target him tonight.
We turn to the veteran, Justin Turner, who is having a resurgent year versus lefties with a 168 wRC+, .421 wOBA, .275 ISO, 44.6% fly-ball rate, and 46.4% hard-contact rate. This is truly a juicy matchup, so I'm adding Turner To Record an RBI (+105).
Tyler Glasnow Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Taking an under can be tough, but it's the right spot most of the time.
Tonight, that leads us to under 8.5 strikeouts for Tyler Glasnow. The truth is Glasnow is an awesome pitcher. However, much like Transformers, there's more than meets the eye in this situation.
Yes, Glasnow has a 31.3% strikeout rate and 14.3% swinging-strike rate, which are flat-out amazing. These numbers come from only three starts this season since he recently returned from an injury, but they are generally in line with his career numbers so we can trust them.
While the matchup is a great one against the Oakland Athletics, the main issue comes down to Glasnow's pitch count. In his three starts this season, Glasnow has totaled 83, 89, and 86 pitches. Those are very modest totals in the grand scheme of things, and ultimately, it limits his ability to get deeper into the games and rack up strikeouts.
If Glasnow was fully stretched out and able to go for 100-plus pitches, this would be a different conversation, but I'm going with under 8.5 strikeouts tonight.
Christian Walker To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the best offenses in the league, and it's always a good idea to get some exposure to that lineup.
A 4.52 implied run total is a good indication we are going to see some scoring from the Diamondbacks, and we should look at some player props which reflect such.
We'll start with Christian Walker, who is crushing lefty pitchers this season and has a great spot to continue that trend. He comes in with a 150 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .333 ISO, 52.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus lefties. The power is very clear from Walker, who hits in the middle portion of the Diamondbacks' lineup. That should put him in a spot to see quality pitches.
He will be taking on Ranger Suarez, who isn't too much of a threat on the mound. He has a very modest 21.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters, allowing a .389 BABIP, .495 SLG, and .369 wOBA. Suarez isn't some dominant ace on the mound, and with the way Walker has been hitting lefties this season, I'll take him in this matchup.
