MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/19/23

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jun 19th, 2023
Hunter Brown has a mix of matchup and salary to be a good anchor for lineups. Which other pitchers stand out -- and which stacks can overperform their salaries?

A medium-sized slate (seven games) awaits us on Monday, headlined by a mix of friendly hitting matchups and some higher-salaried pitchers.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

There aren't many pitchers with dominant SIERAs on the board today, and that's mostly reflected by some inflated run totals. How does that impact the pitching slate?

Well, we still have a few good pitching situations.

James Paxton's ($10,200) peripherals are hard to match on the slate. He holds a 3.13 SIERA and a 33.1% strikeout rate this year across 133 batters faced. His most recent outing against the Colorado Rockies was an eight-strikeout affair (24 batters faced). He's put up at least eight Ks in four of his six starts on the season. The Minnesota Twins are holding a 28.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season, the highest of any active roster.

Hunter Brown ($9,800) has less strikeout appeal (despite a 27.1% strikeout rate of his own) against a New York Mets team with a 20.2% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Brown, though, can keep the ball on the ground (56.3% ground-ball rate) and profiles as a high-floor option. numberFire's model likes Brown to finish second in fantasy points today behind just Corbin Burnes ($10,600) and is within a point of the top projection of the slate.

Merrill Kelly ($10,500) also projects well in numberFire's model against the Milwaukee Brewers, giving us four options (Burnes, Kelly, Paxton, and Brown) at a salary of $9,800 or higher.

But we can also consider a particular value option.

Brandon Williamson ($7,000) is up against the Rockies in a game with a total of 10 runs. Colorado is holding a 61 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, the worst in the Majors, and a 29.0% strikeout rate (also worst). Per salary dollar, Williamson holds the top projection in numberFire's model.

Hitting Breakdown

Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are getting a good overall hitting situation on Monday. They're up against Austin Gomber, owner of a 7.29 ERA and 7.20 xERA. As a team, the Reds' active roster has a 102 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a low 23.1% strikeout rate. With an implied run total of 5.45 runs and a game total of 10.0, Cincinnati is in a prime spot.

Even with the great game environment (excluding risky weather), we can get a sub-$3,000 leadoff man with Kevin Newman ($2,700) before the harder-to-roster options with Matt McLain ($3,800), Jonathan India ($3,600), Elly De La Cruz ($3,900), and Spencer Steer ($3,300). Steer has +280 odds to hit a home run.

San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants' active-roster wRC+ of 119 ranks them fourth in the Majors, and against right-handed pitching specifically, they're at a 122 wRC+. That's paired with a top-10 slugging percentage (.423) entering a matchup with Michael Wacha.

Despite a 7-2 record and a 2.89 ERA, Wacha's getting pretty lucky. His actual stats (.211 batting average allowed, .353 slugging percentage allowed, and .275 wOBA allowed) are all markedly better than his expected stats (.244 batting average, .419 slugging percentage, .315 wOBA, and 4.05 ERA). San Francisco can take advantage of that regression.

LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3,200), Joc Pederson ($3,300), Thairo Estrada ($3,800), Michael Conforto ($3,300), and Mike Yastrzemski ($2,900) give us four lefties (all but Estrada) in the top five of the order against a righty waiting to embrace regression.

Chicago White Sox
While not a great offense overall (92 active-roster wRC+), the Chicago White Sox have a 104 wRC+ against lefties, one of the larger gaps we have in the Majors from lefties (104) to righties (88). They face a gettable lefty with Andrew Heaney, whose ERA of 4.05 is tied to an expected ERA of 4.46. His strikeout rate (24.4%) is nothing to fear, either.

The main appeal here is the value-based nature of this lineup and the salary we can free up to roster better stacks and/or better pitching.

Tim Anderson ($2,700), Andrew Vaughn ($3,000), Luis Robert ($3,500), Eloy Jimenez ($3,200), and Jake Burger ($3,200) give us some flexibility and a ton of right-handed at-bats against Heaney.