3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/21/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Luis Robert To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Chicago White Sox have a 4.75 implied run total and are in a spot for more offense tonight.
After a solid game last night, the White Sox will look to build on that with a favorable matchup against Martin Perez. Simply put, Perez isn't a pitcher you need to be worried about when he is on the mound, and given his splits against right-handed hitters, we should be looking to take player props against him.
Speaking of his struggles versus right-handed hitters, this season he comes in allowing a .459 SLG, .346 wOBA, 4.90 xFIP, 1.46 HR/9, and 37.3% fly-ball rate. These are some juicy stats to see when we are searching for a pitcher to target, and that leads us to Luis Robert.
This season, Robert is blistering the ball versus left-handed pitchers with a 250 wRC+, .531 wOBA, .412 ISO, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate. We see that on full display recently with Robert having four home runs in his last eight games.
I love everything about this matchup and will be adding Robert To Record an RBI (+140).
Alex Verdugo To Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)
The Boston Red Sox are rolling right now, and with an 8.5-run total versus the Minnesota Twins, we should see some scoring tonight.
A high run expectation means there will be plenty of runners on the base paths -- and a good opportunity to correlate that with some player props. Let's turn to Alex Verdugo, who's about as solid as they come.
Verdugo isn't some massive power hitter; he's just consistent across the board and that's what we want with a simple total base prop. He comes in with 140 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .339 BABIP, and an 11.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He doesn't waste chances at the plate, and he puts the ball in play to get on base. Check, check, and check.
He's going up against Sonny Gray, who isn't as dominant on the mound as some may think. Against lefties this season, Gray has a 4.14 xRIP, .304 BABIP, .366 SLG, and most importantly, a low 15.7% strikeout rate. If he isn't going to be punching out hitters at the plate, Verdugo -- who already doesn't strike out -- should be in a great spot to make some contact and get on base.
Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Atlanta Braves are pretty good.
By saying pretty good, I mean they have one of the best offenses in the league and can plate multiple runs before you can blink. This often puts pitchers in a tough matchup and can be forced out of the game early after giving up a few runs.
The Braves come in with a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. Not to mention the fact they have a .198 ISO (1st), 111 wRC+ (3rd), and 36.1% hard-contact rate (3rd) versus right-handed pitchers. They are the class of the MLB and not a team that gets shut down.
This leads us to under 6.5 strikeouts for Aaron Nola. There's no doubt Nola is a great pitcher, but we've seen his strikeout rate drop to 24.4% this season compared to being at least 29.0% in each of the prior three years. If his strikeouts are just a touch lower, and he is facing an elite lineup, it all points to the under on his strikeout prop tonight.
