3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/23/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Brandon Belt To Hit a Home Run (+350)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a juicy 5.57 implied run total tonight against the Oakland Athletics.
The Blue Jays have been a bit inconsistent this season, but they have plenty of power in their lineup and can put that on display against the weak Athletics pitching staff tonight. Oakland will have James Kaprielian on the mound, who comes in allowing a .382 wOBA, .510 SLG, 6.32 xFIP, 2.16 HR/9, 48.8% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus lefties this season.
Those are some rough numbers to be sporting, and it presents a great chance for the Blue Jays to pile up some runs. We turn to the veteran, Brandon Belt, who comes in with strong 139 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .182 ISO, 44.9% fly-ball rate, and 37.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Belt is checking all the boxes we want to see tonight and will be in a good spot once the game gets to the Athletics' bullpen. With that said, I'm adding Belt To Record an RBI (+130).
Logan Gilbert Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)
For a pitcher prop tonight, I'm going with over 4.5 strikeouts for Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert is truly a solid pitcher for the Seattle Mariners, but his recent results don't show it. On the season, he has 14 starts and has been over this 4.5 mark 10 times (71%). Three of the four times he has failed to reach this mark have come over his last four starts.
However, in two of those starts, he failed to get past the fourth inning after allowing five and six earned runs. He's had a few rough starts -- every pitcher does -- and I don't see it as an issue. He's still carrying a 26.0% strikeout rate, 11.1% swinging-strike rate, and 27.8% called-plus-swinging-strike (CSW) rate.
Those are some solid numbers, and his current results clearly don't reflect the level of consistency he's had this season. The Baltimore Orioles are a middle-of-the-road matchup with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, but this prop is too low considering what Gilbert has proven at large this season.
Fernando Tatis To Record 2+ Hits (+170)
With a 5.20 implied run total, the San Diego Padres should be pouring on runs tonight.
A favorable matchup against Patrick Corbin puts the Padres in a spot to exceed that run total quickly, and that means we should be looking for some player props. Corbin is struggling mightily this season by allowing a .368 wOBA, .493 SLG, 4.53 xFIP, 1.57 HR/9, 14.3% strikeout rate, 34.6% fly-ball rate, and .343 BABIP. That's one of the worst lines you'll see for a pitcher on tonight's slate, and that's what we want to be targeting.
This leads us directly to Fernando Tatis Jr., who is hitting the seams off the ball versus lefty pitchers this season. He comes in with a blistering 203 wRC+, .469 wOBA, .404 ISO, .306 BABIP, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.7% fly-ball rate. It's an elite matchup for Tatis and puts him in a spot to rack up the hits.
His odds for 2+ Total Bases sit at -140, which is a bit much for my taste. I'd rather shoot for the +170 from two hits instead.
