3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/27/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jonah Heim To Hit a Home Run (+500)
A great matchup and a narrative tonight?
That's what we have with Jonah Heim of the Texas Rangers, who have a 5.41 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate outside of Coors Field. The matchup is great versus Matt Manning, and it happens to be Jonah Heim's birthday! I love a good birthday narrative to add on top of a favorable matchup.
Manning has only two starts this season due to a foot injury, so we'll look to his career stats for some info. In his career, Manning has allowed a .425 SLG, 5.03 xFIP, 1.32 HR/9, 35.0% hard-contact rate, and 34.1% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. That's truly nothing to worry about, and the Rangers have plenty of power in their lineup.
When it comes to Heim, he comes in with a 116 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, 42.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This split has been favorable for Heim all season; 10 of his 11 home runs have come off of righty pitchers.
Of course, I'm adding Heim To Record an RBI (+145).
Jose Ramirez To Record 2+ Hits (+165)
The Cleveland Guardians are rocking with a 4.80 implied run total tonight and have some great player props to target.
If a team is expected to be scoring runs, they are going to be getting runners on base, and that means we want to find some player props which will reflect that. Tonight, that leads us to Jose Ramirez, who has been one of the best hitters in the league over the last several seasons.
He comes in with a 160 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .221 ISO, 8.3% strikeout rate, .335 BABIP, and 46.7% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Ramirez will be taking on Brady Singer, who enters allowing a .380 wOBA, .515 SLG, 4.97 xFIP, .344 BABIP, 1.05 HR/9, and 40.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.
Ramirez's player prop for at least two total bases is sitting at -135, so I'd rather shoot for a bit of upside given the two outcomes are very closely correlated.
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)
Kevin Gausman is an elite pitcher and worth trusting tonight.
The juice might be a bit much for some people, but there's still value in this prop. Gausman is coming off of three "slower" starts where he posted six strikeouts or fewer in all of them but is still carrying a 31.5% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging-strike rate overall this season. Gausman has elite upside and has shown that off this season by posting 10-plus punchouts six times.
I'm not worried about a few bad games from him -- especially with a favorable matchup awaiting him. He will be up against the San Francisco Giants, who come in with a 24.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (seventh worst in the league).
This is the type of matchup for Gausman to bounce back and return to his double-digit strikeout form.
