MLB Betting Guide for Friday 6/30/23: Expecting an Onslaught of Runs in St. Louis
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 8.5 (-104)
By xFIP, these are two of the bottom-10 bullpens this month. That's really the only concern I have for this total.
Freddy Peralta hasn't been at the peak of his power, but his identical 4.16 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and expected ERA (xERA) show a quality arm, and he's still got good velocity with a 25.6% strikeout rate. It doesn't necessarily take quality to shut down the Pirates these days; they've amassed just a 78 wRC+ against righties this month.
Only two teams have a worse mark against right-handers, and you guessed it; the Brewers (77) are one of them. They'll battle righty Osvaldo Bido on the other side of this one, and through three MLB starts, Bido has impressed. He's compiled a 3.83 SIERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate, and his 34.0% flyball rate has helped him avoid an issue with dingers (0.57 HR/9).
This total is trending toward nine due to public betting activity, but I have no interest in expecting either of these teams to explode offensively.
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Twins ML (-104)
The Minnesota Twins have a vastly superior pitcher today as a slight 'dog, and FanDuel Sportsbook bettors are flocking in droves to fade him. Jackpot.
Pablo Lopez likely missed out on an All-Star bid due to bad luck. His 3.12 xERA is phenomenal with a gaudy 30.1% strikeout rate to support it. Lopez has been torched by a .311 BABIP considering he's hovering at a normal 1.03 HR/9, and seeing-eye grounders almost certainly find gloves as the sample extends.
As for the host Orioles, I'd sooner project their hurler to head the other way. Dean Kremer's 4.50 ERA is backed up by an ugly 5.73 xERA, and he's allowing 1.73 HR/9 to this point. Kremer has been fortunate to just have fewer ducks on the pond as recent as his last outing, ceding three solo dongs to the Mariners.
Considering Minnesota's bullpen (4.06 xFIP) has been a tiny step ahead of Baltimore's (4.18) this month, they should have a pitching edge throughout the duration of the game. That's pretty solid for a 'dog when these two offenses rank closely (10th and 12th in wRC+, respectively) against righties this season.
New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals
Over 9.5 (-104)
As a side, the St. Louis Cardinals have torched me all season. Totals have been more fruitful.
We've got two really poor pitchers on the bump in Mound City. The Yankees are in town for a matchup of these storied franchises, and they'll start this series with Luis Severino. That's not been great news when Severino has a 6.51 xERA, 19.5% strikeout rate, and a massive 47.4% hard-hit rate allowed, which ranks in the eighth percentile this season in MLB.
Amidst their woes, St. Louis has a .748 OPS against righties this month, so they're still performing well at the plate. This is also the better split for the Aaron Judge-less Yanks (.739 OPS this month against lefties) against southpaw Matthew Liberatore.
Liberatore is one of baseball's top prospects, but he continues to flounder at the major-league level. His 7.24 xERA and 15.9% strikeout rate are worse than Severino's, and his hard-hit rate allowed (45.4%) isn't much better.
This is a pick 'em where I'd also fancy Cardinals ML (-108) behind the stronger offense, but the Redbirds have been a tough bet this year that I wouldn't blame anyone for fading.
