MLB Betting Guide for Monday 7/3/23: Steer Clear of the Reverse Line Movement in Cleveland
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Over 9.5 (+100)
We'll go back to the well targeting Cristian Javier today, but there's another strong plus on the other side.
Javier's 4.64 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is poor and much higher than a 3.72 ERA would suggest. He's also allowing a boatload of fly balls (54.2% rate) with an elevated 35.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Though the Houston hurler entered 2023 with Cy Young aspirations, he's a vulnerable bet each start.
We obviously know Texas crushes right-handed pitching, too. They've kept it rolling with a .802 OPS since June 1st in the split. However, this is also the better platoon side for the Astros (118 wRC+ since June 1st versus lefties) set to face southpaw Martin Perez. Perez's struggles are more obvious behind a 5.09 SIERA.
We've got two quality offenses against gettable pitchers on a warm day in Arlington. This over, stopping shy of double digits, is a quality look.
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians
Guardians +1.5 (-134)
FanDuel Sportsbook gives spread data to all bettors, so it's telling that this line shifted from -126 last night to -134 this morning with 89% of the money coming in on the Braves -- as you'd expect.
Some well-respected cash likely is backing Cleveland here due to a value proposition. Atlanta's weakest starter -- by peripherals -- will face an interesting prospect from the Guards.
Bryce Elder from the Braves hasn't been as good as a 2.44 ERA would suggest. He's got a 4.07 SIERA behind it with a 41.4% hard-hit rate allowed that ranks in the 33rd percentile across all of MLB. Yikes.
Conversely, the early returns on Gavin Williams are decently promising. Williams' 33.3% strikeout rate with Triple-A Columbus was his upside entering the bigs, but despite disappointing there so far (21.7%), Williams' 29.0% hard-hit rate allowed has been excellent. Atlanta has just a 21.4% strikeout rate against righties, so the contact figure is a far more important indicator of success.
Any time there's a minus-money spread being ignored, I'm automatically interested. The pitching dynamic here only furthers that.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Under 8.5 (-104)
This line was 9.0 when I gave it out on today's Covering the Spread, so hop in quickly if you're getting aboard.
Though Joe Ryan was lit up by the aforementioned Braves last week, he's still having a remarkable season and faces a great matchup tonight. Ryan's 3.34 SIERA and 27.3% strikeout rate are both excellent, and the Royals' 79 wRC+ overall against right-handed pitching is the worst mark in baseball. He should be in a great position for a quality start.
Minnesota's inability to hit lefties might carry this bet, though. The Twins have bottom-five marks in wRC+ (85) and strikeout rate (26.5%) against southpaws this season, and Austin Cox -- though short on experience -- won't be the worst one.
Cox's 4.49 SIERA isn't horrible even if it's higher than a 2.25 ERA most aren't taking seriously. Minnesota's plate-discipline issues should also help a 13.1% walk rate that's been elevated so far.
Ryan's excellent forecast is the floor for this bet, but Cox could keep the Twinkies quieter than expected, too.
