MLB Betting Guide for Monday 7/17/23: Getting Creative to Back the Royals
If you want a large inventory of options to bet, baseball has got you covered.
From moneylines to run totals to strikeout props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Nationals ML (+124)
With friendly wind for pitchers on tap at Wrigley Field tonight, I am comfortable buying into MacKenzie Gore's volatile -- but intriguing -- profile here.
Gore has a 3.97 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) thanks to an ace-like 27.8% strikeout rate, but his 5.05 expected ERA (xERA) is much higher because of a 47.1% hard-hit rate allowed. Better conditions could help reduce the chance mistakes badly burn him.
The Cubs will answer Gore with a lefty of their own, Drew Smyly. Smyly's profile is nearly the inverse of Gore's; his 4.83 SIERA is high because of a low 19.3% strikeout rate, but his 4.15 xERA isn't too bad behind a 34.1% hard-hit rate allowed that ranks in the 81st percentile across MLB.
Washington (.749 OPS versus lefties since June 15th) has been a slightly better offense than Chicago (.746) in this same split recently, so I'll take the value on this number I've got lined as a direct pick 'em.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Over 9.5 (-105)
When these two paltry offenses have a total this high, it's worth a second look. Upon second look, you'll find two of the worst starters in baseball.
Kansas City has lost 16 of the 17 games that Jordan Lyles started, but that's only the beginning of his ineptitude. Lyles' 5.18 SIERA comes with a minuscule 16.7% strikeout rate, and any bonus point he gets for hard-contact reduction goes away quickly ceding 1.86 HR/9.
However, I'm not totally sure that he won't get the best of Detroit's hurler today. Matt Manning, entering with a worse 5.27 SIERA, has been absolutely shelled this season, ceding a 53.6% flyball rate and 45.2% hard-hit rate allowed. He's been tagged with just an 8.6% HR/FB ratio to this stage, which is nothing short of wizardry.
That impending regression is why I also looked at Royals ML (+114) in this spot, but the over forecasts a competitive effort while expecting Lyles to struggle as he often does.
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Athletics First 5 Innings ML (+130)
I'll take five and dive in Oakland to avoid their horrendous bullpen (league-worst 5.22 xFIP) flipping an outcome here.
Whenever the A's are just +135 to win, it's probably Paul Blackburn's turn at the wheel, and the 2022 All-Star has easily topped their rotation again in 2023. He's actually been solid behind a 3.92 xERA and 24.1% strikeout rate, allowing just a 32.7% hard-hit rate to opposing batters.
His task against Boston (105 wRC+ versus righties) won't be easy, but the Sox will definitely be at a pitching deficit today. It looks like Nick Pivetta will follow an opener, and Pivetta's not being trusted to start for good reason. He's dealing with familiar issues with flyballs (44.2% rate) and hard-hit balls (46.2% rate allowed; seventh percentile in MLB) behind a 4.88 xERA.
The Athletics are dreadful offensively, for they've held an 83 wRC+ against righties since June 15th, but this is better than facing a lefty (75). They're definitely undervalued to take an early lead in this one.
