MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 7/19/23: 3 Unders After an Explosive Night of Offense
Baseball has got you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule nearly every day. Daily outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
With that said, which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Under 9.0 (+100)
With the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field tonight, we can feel pretty solid about this under given the offenses at hand.
Of course, the Nationals are no offensive juggernaut, but tonight's matchup with Kyle Hendricks could be especially tricky for them. Washington's one claim to fame against righties is a low strikeout rate (18.9%), but Hendricks, holding a 15.6% strikeout rate, doesn't play that game anyway. He's an effective sinkerballer with an extremely low hard-hit rate allowed (33.0%).
As for the Cubs, they'll probably struggle to replicate a 17-run outburst from last night -- even against Trevor Williams. Williams' 5.09 expected ERA (xERA) isn't ideal, but Chicago is also a below-average offense (97 wRC+) in this split, and Williams' average exit velocity (88.2 mph) is actually quite solid.
These two clubs -- not known for mashing -- have averaged 16 total runs per game in the first two of this series. Today could be a significant step back.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Under 8.5 (-108)
Tuesday's run outburst found its way to Kansas City, too. These offenses -- usually in the doldrums across baseball -- dueled into double digits last night.
Just from Detroit's starter, we should expect fewer runs plated tonight. Eduardo Rodriguez has been sensational this season, amassing a 3.43 xERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 0.94 HR/9 allowed this season. The Royals will be one of his easier tests of the season; they've got a dreadful .705 OPS in the split this season.
Don't discount the Monarchs' lefty, either. Ryan Yarbrough's 5.29 ERA has been pretty unlucky considering he's got a 4.51 xERA behind it, and Yarborough has an average exit velocity (84.5 mph) and hard-hit rate allowed (28.7%) that are 95th percentile or better across baseball. His numbers should improve soon with that control.
The Tigers aren't exactly world-crushers in this split (.706 OPS) themselves, so this under -- priced near a pick 'em -- is my favorite on today's slate.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Under 7.5 (-122)
We should see a boatload of punchouts in this potential pitcher's duel.
The Twins (27.1% strikeout rate versus righties) and Mariners (25.6%) strike out at the two highest clips in MLB against orthodox hurlers. Two good ones are on the bump here, too.
Luis Castillo is the easier one to see. The 2023 All-Star has a solid 3.79 xERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate that can certainly torment the whiff-heavy Twinkies. He ranks in the 86th percentile in whiff rate (15.2%) across all of baseball.
However, Minnesota's Kenta Maeda can keep pace. He's just eight starts back from injury but has deserved better than the 5.50 ERA in a small sample. He's got a 3.85 xERA and 26.6% strikeout rate behind it.
Add in that both of these two will work in baseball's best park for pitchers, and you can see why this total is so low. This is also a contrarian fade of the 13 combined runs in each of the first two games of this series, which will slant public action toward a third over.
