MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 4/27/15
If you’ve never played daily fantasy baseball before, it’s time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you’re able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every day.
And while there are many platforms to play daily fantasy baseball on, one of our favorites is from our partners over at DraftKings.com. Never played over there before? It’s time for that to change. Sign up now and use our optimal lineups here at numberFire.com to crush the competition. You won’t regret it.
As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Top Pitchers
High-Cost Pitcher
Corey Kluber – You can go in a lot of different directions at pitcher tonight, but our algorithm likes Kluber most. He'll face the Royals, a team that ranks third in wOBA in all of baseball, and is striking out on just 14.0% of their at-bats. That doesn't exactly add up to a good matchup, but the Royals have been a little lucky this year, ranking fourth in BABIP despite just an above-average line-drive rate. There's a slight park shift here, too, as Cleveland is more of a pitcher's park than Kansas City is. But then there's also Kluber, who's, you know, kind of good at pitching. After finishing last year with a 10.27 K/9, he's already off to a 10.08 strikeouts per nine start, and most projection systems have him around the 9.50 mark. The matchup isn't ideal, which is why you're better off diversifying a bit tonight at pitcher, but Kluber should be fine.
Alternative Option: David Price
Cost-Effective Pitcher
Collin McHugh – I get excited when lower-priced or undervalued pitchers get a chance at Petco Park. Mostly because I'm a nerd, but also because their numbers are bound to see a nice bump. That's the case for McHugh tonight, as he gets the Padres -- a team full of righty bats to go up against the right-hander -- in San Diego. To start the year, McHugh has had an impressive 8.68 K/9 rate, which is actually down a bit from last year's 9.14 average. He's got a really impressive 1.77 FIP during this short season as well, but it's not like this is some fluke -- last year his FIP was at a respectable 3.11, and plenty of projection systems have him hovering the 3.50 this season. The biggest downside in using McHugh is he may not get the win against James Shields, another solid pitching option tonight, but chasing wins is silly.
Alternative Option: John Lackey
Top Hitters
High-Cost Hitters
Robinson Cano - The Mariners will face the Rangers tonight in Texas, which gives Seattle hitters a nice park shift, per FanGraphs' numbers. They'll face Yovani Gallardo, who has a career 3.71 FIP and 11.4% home run to fly ball rate. Against lefty bats in his career, Gallardo is giving up a .319 wOBA, while Cano, a lefty himself, hits righties like a boss (.380 wOBA and .208 ISO). Cano -- as well as his Seattle Mariner teammates -- makes for a good play tonight.
Miguel Cabrera - Tommy Milone is 2-0 and has a respectable 3.38 ERA. This is why traditional statistics are terrible. In truth, his ERA should hover around the 5.40 range according to FIP, while those two wins came with 14 total runs in support. Must be nice. Today, Milone faces his toughest test of this short season against the Detroit Tigers. And Miguel Cabrera, a right-handed batter who will face Milone, should benefit from the platoon advantage. Though he can hit righties, too, over his career, Miggy has hit to a .414 wOBA and .244 ISO against lefties. And the game is going to be played in Minnesota, an above-average park for hitters. Oh boy.
Alternative Option: Paul Goldschmidt
Cost-Effective Hitters
Jimmy Paredes - Given the way he's hitting, fading Paredes is a scary thought. In eight games this year, Paredes has scored double-digit DraftKings points six times, all while hitting 3.25 FanDuel points all but two times as well. The Orioles will face Hector Noesi tonight, who's sort of a reverse-splits pitcher, but also a terrible one. He has a career 4.91 FIP, and a home run to fly ball ratio that's well below average. The Orioles could score runs tonight, and if they do, Paredes, if he's in the lineup, should be a big part of that.
Khris Davis - The Reds are throwing Jason Marquis and his 4.85 career FIP on the mound tonight in Cincinnati, putting the Brewers bats in play. Davis is one that you may want to target, despite not having the platoon advantage. But over his career, he's still hitting to a .342 wOBA against right-handed pitching, down just 5 points compared to when he faces lefties. The best part about Davis is his price, at least on FanDuel, where they have him at the minimum $2,200. I can understand if you'd rather not stack Brewers, but to get some exposure to the lineup, Davis isn't a bad way to go.
Alternative Option: Travis Snider
