MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 6/11/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Top Pitchers
High-Cost Pitcher
Garrett Richards – Pitching options are absolutely brutal today, but Richards is the one guy who I think is at least relatively safe to use in cash games. Although he has posted an unimpressive 4.14 ERA, 4.06 FIP and 4.34 xFIP, the Angels starter does get the pleasure of facing a Rays team who ranks 23rd in the league in wOBA against righties (.296), striking out at the seventh-highest clip in the league (21.4%). Vegas is under the impression that this will be a very low scoring game with the over/under set at 7, and with the Angels as -120 favorites, Richards is in a very good spot tonight on a night where very few pitchers are.
Alternative Options: N/A
Cost-Effective Pitcher
David Phelps – Despite just a 2-3 record in 10 starts this season, Phelps has actually be pretty decent this season, posting a 3.77 FIP and 4.12 xFIP. But what makes Phelps an interesting play tonight is the fact that he is facing a Rockies team that has struggled away from the friendly confines of Coors Field in Miami. Colorado actually leads the league in strike out percentage away from home at 24.9% and ranks 18th in the league in wRC+ in away games at 89. While it's hard to trust Phelps in cash games, he makes a very intriguing GPP play given his matchup and location of the game.
Alternative Option: Jonathon Niese
High-Cost Hitters
Todd Frazier - Frazier has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this season. He has posted a .418 wOBA, .362 ISO and .983 OPS against southpaws this season and gets a great matchup with Cubs' lefty Tsuyoshi Wada tonight. Wada has given up a .333 wOBA to right handed batters this season and has a huge 40.2% fly ball rate over the past year. Our algorithm gives the Reds' third baseman the fourth best chance on the board to hit a homer today and, given his matchup, he makes an excellent play in all formats tonight.
Giancarlo Stanton - Speaking of power hitters who crush left-handed pitching, Stanton has been scorching hot as of late. In nine games in the month of June, Stanton has crushed six homers, driven in seven RBI and has scored 9 runs of his own. He's also posted a massive 1.159 OPS and .537 ISO to go along with his .462 wOBA against lefties this season. With a matchup with Rockies' southpaw Chris Rusin who has allowed a .362 wOBA to righties this season on the docket for tonight, the Marlins slugger should have little trouble knocking in a few runs at the very least tonight.
Alternative Options: Adam Jones
Cost-Effective Hitters
Miguel Montero - Montero is coming off of a huge 3-hit, 3-RBI, 2-run game in which he mashed his seventh dinger of the year and draws another strong matchup against a less-than-stellar right-handed pitcher tonight. Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .315 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season while posting an abysmal 5.44 SIERA, 5.74 FIP and 4.99 xFIP. Montero, meanwhile, has earned a .335 wOBA and .177 ISO against righties and should see a decent boost at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. At just $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings, Montero makes a very strong play at an extremely reasonable price.
Jeff Baker - Baker is really only on my radar against left-handed pitching, but fortunately for us he is facing Rockies' southpaw Rusin tonight. As I already mentioned, Rusin is not very good, which means that Baker makes a very strong play. The Marlines infielder has earned a .357 wOBA and .267 ISO against lefties and has been even more impressive when he faces lefties at home, posting a .411 wOBA, .364 ISO and .970 OPS in games where he faces a left-handed pitcher in Miami. Baker can be had for just $2,600 on FanDuel and $2,900 on DraftKings, making him dollar for dollar one of my favorite plays on the board tonight.
Alternative Option: Matt Wieters
