MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 6/30/15
If you've never played daily fantasy baseball before, it's time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you're able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every day.
And while there are many platforms to play daily fantasy baseball on, one of our favorites is from our partners over at DraftKings.com, a place where over $300,000,000 will be won this baseball season. Never played over there before? It's time for that to change. Sign up now and use our optimal lineups here at numberFire.com to crush the competition. You won't regret it.
As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Top Pitchers
High-Cost Pitcher
Chris Sale – Sale has been on a serious stretch of late and squares off against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, which doesn't necessarily sound like a good matchup. However, we can't just forget that Sale has notched double-digit strikeouts in seven straight games and in eight of his last 10. Sale's got a strikeout rate of 34.2%, tops in the Majors, and that should be enough to target him today.
Throw in the fact that the Cardinals actually are a below average team against lefites, and things look even more obvious. The Cardinals own a wRC+ of just 89 (which ranks 23rd) against lefties, and their wOBA of .299 ranks 24th. Plus, their strikeout rate of 24.0% against lefties is fourth-highest in the league.
Alternative Options: Sonny Gray (Editor's note: Gray has been scratched from his start; consider targeting Lance Lynn), Cole Hamels
Cost-Effective Pitcher
Marco Estrada – There are a lot of pricey options on DraftKings tonight, and given that it's a full slate, you can probably find enough value bats to pay up for two pitchers. But if you really want to load up on bats, then at least consider Estrada. Dating back to the start of last season, Estrada has a strikeout rate of 20.6%, 10th-highest among pitchers on the slate tonight.
Estrada had a huge outing last time on the bump, striking out 10 in 8.2 innings and allowing just two hits. He's also hit the 20-point plateau on DraftKings in three of his past four. The Red Sox aren't necessarily a team to target, but if for some reason their lineup is a bit thin tonight, Estrada can cash in as one of our best value plays tonight.
Alternative Options: Mike Montgomery, Kyle Hendricks
High-Cost Hitters
Justin Turner – I could have plugged Turner into the next section because he's one of our best values of the day via DraftKings pricing (where he costs $4,400). Turner is our top projected point getter, and the top three all come from the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game.
Turner has an absurd .331 ISO versus righties this year (the league average is .146) and a .476 wOBA (the league average is .312) and faces on tonight in a game with an over/under of 9. I don't need to complicate this recommendation.
Jose Bautista – Bautista owns a .419 wOBA and a .244 ISO against lefties this year and is our most-likely dong candidate on the evening, projected for 0.33 homers. The whole Blue Jays offense has been historically good against lefties this season, so that makes Bautista even more of a target. Runs should come in bunches.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a nice 22.1% strikeout rate, so we might not see a full out onslaught, but if his .268 batting average on balls in play regresses tonight, you'll want exposure to the Toronto bats -- even if you can't spend up for Bautista.
Alternative Options: Adrian Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen
Cost-Effective Hitters
Josh Phegley – Catcher is sometimes a hard position to pin down, but Phegley is in a good spot tonight against lefty Jorge de la Rosa of the Rockies. Phegley owns a nice .419 wOBA against lefties this year, tops on the A's. If he hits in the top six, he makes for a nice pivot from the obvious catcher options tonight considering his price.
Johnny Giavotella – For just $2,800 on DraftKings you can likely roster the leadoff hitter of a lineup projected to score more than four runs (per Vegas odds) against a pitcher who is just coming back from injury.
Well, Ivan Nova will be making his second appearance, and threw 6.2 innings against the Phillies in his first start. He struck out just one batter but walked two, and in 20.2 innings in 2014, his WHIP was 1.84. If Giavotella gets on, then the guys behind him should be able to make Nova work, allowing him to return value on a modest price tag.
Alternative Options: Logan Morrison, Chris Young
