MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 7/6/15
If you've never played daily fantasy baseball before, it's time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you're able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every day.
And while there are many platforms to play daily fantasy baseball on, one of our favorites is from our partners over at DraftKings.com, a place where over $300,000,000 will be won this baseball season. Never played over there before? It's time for that to change. Sign up now and use our optimal lineups here at numberFire.com to crush the competition. You won't regret it.
As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Top Pitchers
High-Cost Pitcher
Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has gotten off to a very hot start so far this season. He has earned a 10-6 record and is one of only eight players who has struck out an average of more than 10 batters per nine innings (10.17). While his 3.88 ERA is not great, his 2.77 FIP and 2.72 xFIP show us just how good he has been through his first 16 starts of the season. All that said, what really makes the Indians' starter such a strong play tonight is his matchup with the Astros. Although Houston does rank in the top 10 in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching, they also strike out at the highest rate in the league with a massive 25.9% strikeout rate against righties. Look for Carrasco to record a bunch of strikeouts in a game that is expected to be one of the lowest scoring on tonight's slate. He is our highest projected pitcher on the board tonight by a wide margin.
Alternative Options: Chris Sale
Cost-Effective Pitcher
Chris Heston – Last time Heston took the mound against the Mets, he recorded the Giants' fourth no-hitter in the past four years, burning New York for 11 strikeouts in the process. Tonight, the Giants' youngster gets the pleasure of facing off with the Mets once again, and he must be licking his chops. New York ranks 29th in the league in wOBA versus right-handed pitching (.286) and 28th in wRC+ against righties (84). They also strike out at the seventh-highest rate in the league against right-handers (20.6%) and rank 27th in the league as a team in isolated power (.118). Although a second no-hitter is extremely unlikely, expect Heston to dominate the Mets once again en route to another big fantasy outing. He is an absolute steal at just $6,300 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel.
Alternative Options: A.J. Burnett
High-Cost Hitters
Joey Votto – I actually probably could have included Votto in the "Cost-Effective Hitters" category with his insanely low $3,200 cost on FanDuel, but considering his $4,300 price tag on DraftKings and the fact that there is a ton of value on the board tonight, I decided he fit better here. The Reds' first baseman has been outstanding against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .377 wOBA and .230 ISO against righties. He is coming off of a monstrous month of June in which he hit for a .402 wOBA and .224 ISO and draws a spectacular matchup against Doug Fister and his 5.05 FIP and 5.13 xFIP against lefties this season. Votto is our highest projected batter on the board tonight and can be had for a very reasonable price across the industry.
Brian Dozier – While the Twins have not hit the ball particularly well as a team this season, they have actually been very solid when facing left-handed pitching through the first half. Minnesota ranks 14th in the league in wOBA (.309) and 15th in wRC+ (96) against southpaws and much of that success can be attributed to their lead-off man, Dozier. The Twins' second baseman has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .370 wOBA and .253 ISO and gets a tremendous matchup against a left-handed fly ball pitcher in Wei-Yin Chen. Dozier makes an excellent play in all formats tonight.
Alternative Options: Bryce Harper, Todd Frazier
Cost-Effective Hitters
Joc Pederson – Pederson's price has come down considerably across the industry over the past few weeks, but that should not scare you off from playing him against right-handed pitching. Pederson has amassed a .392 wOBA and .295 ISO against righties this season and gets a dream matchup against Phillies' starter Sean O'Sullivan tonight. As Jim Sannes so eloquently explained this morning, O'Sullivan has been straight up awful against lefties this season, boasting a 5.14 xFIP while allowing opposing lefties to hit for a ridiculous .477 wOBA through his first 12 starts of the season. Pederson is in an excellent spot tonight and provides spectacular value at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel.
Jhonny Peralta – With the wind blowing out to left field at Wrigley tonight, right-handed batters get an extra boost and Peralta is no exception. The Cardinals shortstop has crushed left-handed pitching this season, posting a .358 wOBA and .286 ISO versus southpaws on the year. Although a matchup with Jon Lester is not ideal, Peralta will be hitting in the middle of the order in a game that is expected to be one of the highest scoring on the slate with an over/under of 8.5. Peralta has a great shot at going yard tonight and comes at the very reasonable price of just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. Do not hesitate to plug him into your lineups in all formats tonight.
Alternative Options: Andre Ethier, Gerardo Parra
