What Would Happen If the NBA Playoffs Started Today?

Conference Finals

East

2. Boston Celtics (56.4 nERD) vs. 4. Toronto Raptors (64.8)

To the chagrin of LeBron and Cavs fans everywhere, the Celtics and Raptors would have a date in the Eastern Conference Finals if we're looking solely at nERD. This would see the Toronto backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan match up with the backcourt of Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley for the Celtics. Seeing as the four combine for 97 points per game between them, there would be fireworks to be made.

The numbers tell us the difference is elsewhere, though. In the four games against Boston, Toronto is 3-1 this season and has out-rebounded them 45.5 to 38.5, on average. That includes 10.8 offensive rebounds and 106.5 points per contest.

Only one of those included Ibaka, whose 7.7 rebounds and 1.5 offensive boards would help provide the Raptors with a bigger advantage in a seven-game series. The Raptors would probably need to go into hostile territory to end it, but they should be able to emerge in a seven-game series.

West

1. Golden State Warriors (82.0 nERD) vs. San Antonio Spurs (75.4)

For the one we've all been waiting for. The two faced off just once many months ago in what turned out to be a blowout win for the Spurs on the back of 35 points and 5 steals from Leonard. The Spurs out-boarded the Warriors 55 to 35 and held Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and their high-powered offense to 100 points and 7 three-pointers.

This would be a lot like the Spurs/Rockets matchup, but the Warriors are much better than the Rockets defensively. And, over the course of the season, they've proven that rebounding is not an issue. They're 12th in the league in rebounding to the Spurs' 17th.

The problem for the Spurs lies in the pace. If the Warriors get out and run, they can kiss the series goodbye. If the Spurs hold it down closer to 95 possessions, it's in their favor. Ultimately, the Warriors' style endures because they are a better, more talented all-around team and, so long as Durant's healthy, would be just too much for the Spurs in a series that goes the distance.