What Would Happen If the NBA Playoffs Started Today?

Second Round

East

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (61.1) vs. 4. Toronto Raptors (64.8)

Again, so long as Lowry is healthy, this could be a classic series. During the season, Raptors went out and added Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker while the Cavaliers added Kyle Korver, Derrick Williams, and Deron Williams. It'll be interesting to see how those players impact a long playoff series.

Talent says LeBron James and company win with offense, but their defensive rating of 113 in the last 10 games is dead last. In that same span, the Raptors are 15th, keeping opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 51.2%. Of course, it's a close one, but the Raptors -- based on nERD alone -- would pull off an upset.

2. Boston Celtics (56.4) vs. 3. Washington Wizards (56.0)

On the other side of the Eastern Conference bracket, the Celtics and Wizards meet again. The Wizards are 2-1 in the regular season series and have since added Bojan Bogdanovic, who has averaged 17.4 points in 25.1 minutes per game off the bench since coming over from Brooklyn.

Boston, even with two losses, has managed 116.3 points and 9.7 threes in their meetings with Washington. Their improvement defensively, to fifth in effective field goal percentage against, over the last 10 gives us the slightest of confidence that they would emerge from a seven-game series victorious. Of all the series, the difference here is the slimmest, which tells us that, as fans, we should hope for this entertaining matchup.

West

1. Golden State Warriors (82.0 nERD) vs. 4. Utah Jazz (64.1)

As we all know by now, these two teams are polar opposites. The Jazz play at the league's slowest pace (91.7 possessions per 48 minutes) and the Warriors play at the league's second-fastest (100.5). In the same way, the Jazz are tied for 2nd in defensive rating (104.2) and 13th in offensive rating. The Warriors are tied with the Jazz (104.2) defensively and are first (116.1) on the offensive end.

That provides us with one simple truth: the Warriors' offense will be too much for Utah's defense. Even if the Jazz slow it down, they're that much more efficient and can still defend at a high rate despite giving up 105.4 points per game. Utah's lack of efficiency puts them at a disadvantage, resulting in a likely 4-1 win for Golden State.

2. San Antonio Spurs (75.4) vs. 3. Houston Rockets (66.4)

This is one of the matchups we're all hoping for. We saw firsthand why the other night, when Kawhi Leonard did this to cement the Spurs' 112-10 win. On the year, the Spurs are first in defensive rating (103.3) and three-pointers against (8.3) per game. The Rockets are second in offensive rating (115.2) and first with 14.8 three-point makes a night. It's Jazz-Warriors but more evenly matched.

It could all come down to turnover game, and if that is the case, it favors the Spurs. San Antonio has a turnover margin of +1.2 per game on the season. In turn, the Rockets' margin is -0.1. This yells advantage to the Spurs, in the form of a 4-3 series win. If we get this one, stock up on popcorn. You're going to need it.