The 5 Best Bets to Make the 2018-19 NBA Playoffs
Dallas Mavericks
Projected playoff probability: 32.7%
Odds to make the playoffs: +850
Neither the oddsmakers or our projections are especially high on the Dallas Mavericks. At +850 betting odds, that reflects a lowly 14.7% implied probability, meaning that we have the Mavs over twice as likely to make the playoffs for the first time in three years.
While Dirk Nowitzki is back for season number 21 in Dallas, the 40-year-old, who has spent half his life in the NBA, is not the Mavs' big story any more. With third-overall pick Luka Doncic joining last year's ninth-overall pick, Dennis Smith, we've got a real youth movement going on in Dallas for the first time in ages.
Smith's 28.9% usage rate was the third-highest for a rookie (minimum 500 minutes played) in the last 10 seasons. While he had some efficiency issues (.473 true shooting percentage), he posted a solid .520 true shooting percentage in his lone NCAA season, and managing historically high usage in his first season is a good sign for his promise as a contributor on offense in the pros.
Doncic, who was born 23 days after Dirk made his NBA debut, put up great EuroLeague stats last year, averaging 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals in 25.0 minutes per game, while notching a .531 true shooting percentage. He figures to make an impact early.
The Mavs have also added DeAndre Jordan in the middle. Jordan has not posted a total rebound rate below 22.0% since the 2013-14 season, and has led the NBA twice in that span, including last year, when he posted a career-best 26.5% rate. He offers no range on the offensive end, but few players are as efficient he is near the basket, having led the NBA in field goal percentage in five of the last six seasons. Now-departed Nerlens Noel didn't offer any sort of range either, so Jordan should be an upgrade at the five -- especially because that means Dirk won't be asked to play as much interior defense.
The Mavs won only 24 games last year, but with these upgrades, our models like that number to jump way up to 40.3. While they wouldn't likely make the playoffs with 40 wins, that projection certainly isn't their ceiling, and we give them nearly a one-third chance of making their way back to the postseason. A betting line that matches our projections' probability would be all the way down at +206. And the line you're getting at the FanDuel Sportsbook pays out over four times more than that.
