The 5 Best Bets to Make the 2018-19 NBA Playoffs

San Antonio Spurs

Projected playoff probability: 90.3%
Odds to make the playoffs: -145

After getting only 210 minutes (and 0.9 win shares) out of Kawhi Leonard last year, trading him away doesn't make the San Antonio Spurs any less promising a team than they were last year. Sure, they may not be the 60-win squad they were with Kawhi, but the addition of DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl should serve to upgrade the team that won 47 games and made the playoffs last year.

DeRozan is a prolific scorer, coming off five straight seasons with at least 20 points per game, as well as three straight with at least 23 per. He also seemed to make some strides as a passer last season, averaging a career-best 5.2 assists per game while his 9.5% turnover rate sat just below his career average.

The Spurs have lost two of their highest-volume offensive players from last year (Rudy Gay and Manu Ginobili ranked second and third on the team in usage rate), so DeRozan should step into a big role immediately.

Poeltl also broke out as a valuable depth piece for the Toronto Raptors last year, ranking third on the team (minimum 500 minutes played) with an average of .176 win shares per 48 minutes and fourth on the team with 5.6 total win shares.

In addition to Gay and Ginobili, Tony Parker and Danny Green are also gone from the backcourt, but considering that among the 11 Spurs players with 1000-plus minutes, Parker Green and Ginobili made up three of the bottom four in win shares per 48 minutes, those losses shouldn't hurt too much.

Unfortunately, they will now be without Dejounte Murray due to a torn ACL, which makes that four of their bottom five players in that category that won't be suiting up this year. Those losses all carry some brand-name value (which might explain the suppressed betting odds), but they also don't appear to be as significant as they may seem on the surface.

We have this year's iteration of the Spurs projected to be about as successful as last year's, giving them a huge 90.3% chance of making the playoffs with 47.8 projected wins. The Spurs have by far the biggest gap in implied probability from the betting odds and our projections (a 31.1% difference, our projections suggest they should be priced at -930), making them easily the most appealing bet of the five.