NBA Betting Guide for Friday 4/7/23: Finding Cautious Optimism in Some Lines
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +4.0 (-110)
The big variable for every game at this point in the season is playoff implications. This one is easy because there are none.
The Hornets and Houston Rockets are in the bottom four in the standings, and the Hornets are a bit livelier.
Even with a long injury list, the Hornets are about as good (i.e. bad) as the Rockets' current rotation, and they get home-court advantage.
In total, my model thinks the spread should favor the Hornets by half a point. numberFire's algorithm definitely prefers the Hornets and views them as more than 70% likely to cover.
I'm not quite that high on it, but the spread has trended too far in Houston's favor here.
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
Miami Heat Moneyline (-245)
Miami Heat First-Half Spread -3.5 (-114)
Miami Heat First-Half Moneyline (-210)
The Heat have a chance to bump up to the 6 seed (4.0%, via numberFire's model), and their game tips off half an hour earlier than the Brooklyn Nets' game, so they won't have an easy time scoreboard-watching.
The Heat also floored the Philadelphia 76ers last night. So, yes, it's a back-to-back, but the Washington Wizards are -- and have been -- done.
As one of the few teams with legitimate motivation tonight, Miami is a target based on the narrative. But is the number right?
I'd say so, yes. My model likes the Heat as 6.7-point favorites based on current rotations. With a spread of 6.5 points, I can't quite get there. But their odds to win are strong enough to back them at -255.
In the event that they do scale things back if Brooklyn comes out hot, then the first-half spread (-3.5) and monyeline (-210) make sense, as well.
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks First-Half Winner (-325)
This game is important for the Hawks because they can get the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, which is beneficial for them.
The Sixers lost last night in a bid to disrupt the hopes of the Heat, so it's quite likely they are without their key pieces. A 10.5-point spread in Atlanta's favor suggests that's what we'll see.
Before we just hammer the spread, it's worth noting that the 76ers have been pretty okay without Joel Embiid and James Harden active. They're 4-3 and have a non-garbage-time net rating of +3.6 in that split.
The motivation differential is cavernous, though, and we very likely see the Hawks come out strong. They have a post-break first-half offensive rating of 120.3 in home games.
