NHL Betting Guide: Friday 2/19/21

If you are a fan of high-scoring hockey games, then the last three nights of hockey haven't been for you. Only three of the 19 games have made it over the total, and eight games have had four goals or fewer. We're going to look at two games that could follow that trend.

Here are a few wagers from our daily projections.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks moneyline (+166): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Blackhawks +1.5 (-164): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 6.5 (-120): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

Don't look now, but the Chicago Blackhawks are charging up the Central Division standings. The Hawks have used a 6-1-0 run to move into second in the Central, although they have played four more games than the other three teams in playoff positions in the division. One of those teams is the Carolina Hurricanes, who Chicago plays tonight.

Kevin Lankinen has been a difference-maker for the Blackhawks this season. The rookie goalie has posted a 2.29 goals against average and is stopping 93.1% of shots faced. His road metrics are even more impressive, as he's allowing an average of just 1.68 goals per 60 minutes and stopping 94.9% of shots. He has yet to lose in regulation on the road, going 2-0-2.

The Canes had a hard time limiting the Hawks' offense the last time these teams met at the start of the month. Chicago managed 63 scoring chances and 27 high-danger chances, which was their highest two-game total against any of their opponents this season. That could be trouble for the Canes, who have a tendency to let opponents pile up chances.

One trend worth noting is the Hawks have stayed under the total in five of six games, and their games have surpassed five total goals just once in that span -- with three games totaling three or fewer goals. The betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook has shifted in favor of the under, with under 6.5 priced at -120. There's still an implied advantage backing that line, according to our model, which rates the under as a one-star play.

There's also an advantage in backing the Hawks, who have won four straight on the road. The implied odds of the current +166 price on Chicago's moneyline is 37.6%, which is below the 40.0% chance our projections give the Hawks to win. That leaves value in backing the visitors. The same is true for taking Chicago +1.5 on the puckline. Both plays are rated as one-star bets.

Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers

Under 6.5 (-110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5

The Battle of Alberta rages on tonight when the Calgary Flames play the Edmonton Oilers on the first night of a back-to-back. Goaltending usage will be critical as both teams will be playing their fourth game in six nights when the two-game set concludes.

The Flames have a few low-scoring trends working in their favor. Their contests have gone over in just two of their last eight games, and they have seen decreased production metrics. Calgary is averaging 27.5 shots and 24.9 scoring chances per game over that sample, compared to 28.6 shots 26.9 scoring chances on the season. High-danger chances are only marginally lower, dropping from 10.8 on the season to 10.6 over their last eight.

Edmonton has their own low-scoring trends coming into this one, although their trend aligns with improved defensive metrics. Opponents are mustering nine or fewer chances from high-probability areas in three of the Oilers' last five games. Scoring chances and shots are lower than average in two of the five games, but they have been decreasing since the start of the month.

The Oilers have benefitted from having Mike Smith back. His presence has helped stabilize Edmonton's crease and lighten Mikko Koskinen's load, which has resulted in an above-average save percentage in four of their last five games. Consequently, four of their last five games have stayed under the total, with only one of those games eclipsing five goals.

Based on our projections, the betting market accurately reflects the probabilities of both of these teams. That's true from both a moneyline and puckline perspective. There is, however, an advantage in taking the under. When we consider the low-scoring trends for both squads, there is reason to believe that this game stays under 6.5 goals. That aligns with our model, which rates the under as a one-star play.