SOCCER

2018 World Cup: Finding Betting Value in Group Stage Point Totals

Tom Sokol Jun 11th, 2018
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Group D

Argentina: Under 6.5 (5.66 projection)

Despite possessing the best player in the world, this Argentina squad is not quite the juggernaut that they have been in the past. Argentina struggled throughout World Cup qualifying, finishing with an underwhelming 7-7-4 record and a +3 goal differential.

While some betting sites have Argentina listed right behind the big three favorites (Brazil, Germany and Spain), our models rank them as merely the 11th-best team.

In Group D, Nigeria (66% win chance) and Iceland (61% win chance) will provide a challenge for Argentina, and Croatia is more of an even matchup (35% win chance, 30% draw), making the path to seven points a difficult one.

Here's a Group D Betting Guide.

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