2015 National League Central Preview: The Powerhouse, Second Fiddle, and New Gun

Cincinnati Reds

nERD: -0.23 | Projected Win-Loss: 77-85 | Division Odds: 3.0% | Playoffs Odds: 10.1%

It seems like a lot longer than two seasons ago that the Reds were a serious contender in the National League. The Reds' 2014 wheels seemingly fell off with Joey Votto's power, as they went 76-86, following a 92-win season in 2013. Votto hit only six homers in 272 plate appearances. The Reds also fell victim to an injury monsoon that seemed to hit every starter except shortstop Zack Cozart and Billy Hamilton.

Barring another plague of injury's, the Reds do figure to improve in 2014. However, health can't make Votto hit more home runs or improve Jay Bruce's OPS from 2014, which was only six points higher than Hamilton's. Health also can't bring Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon back. So, gear up Reds' fans: this season could be a bumpy ride.

The Reds do, however, have some upside, if you want to call it that. Catcher Devin Mesoraco was a pleasant surprise last year, hitting 25 home runs in just 114 games while having a healthy OPS+ of 149. Third baseman Todd Frazier also had a nice campaign, clubbing 29 home runs while also stealing 20 bases, which is child's play when looking at Hamilton's 56 stolen bases.

There's also the possibility that Votto and Bruce rediscover their power. They also should have second baseman Brandon Phillips back and, despite my beliefs that Phillips is wickedly overrated, that should give the Reds some more power and good defense up the middle. If that happens, I suppose, the Reds could find themselves right in the thick of another NL Central race.

The more likely conclusion is that the Reds window is closing. Every projected starter except for Hamilton, Mesoraco and Bruce will be on the wrong side of 28 in 2015, and Bruce isn't far behind at 27. As a fan of the walk, I love Votto and think he can still be productive, but power is rare in today's game and getting it back is even more rare. Even so, the Reds could surprise some people in 2015. They still have a Cy Young candidate in Johnny Cueto to go along with a good core of hitters, if they can stay healthy. Given the age and regression of that core, however, it's hard to envision them having any more upside than a .500 or slightly better team in 2015.