2015 National League Central Preview: The Powerhouse, Second Fiddle, and New Gun
Milwaukee Brewers
nERD: -0.03 | Projected Win-Loss: 80-82 | Division Odds: 8.8% | Playoffs Odds: 22.5%
For the first three months of the 2014 season, the Brewers dominated the NL Central, finding themselves leading the division by 6.5 games on July 1st. However, following a July, August, and September in which the Brewers were 16 games under .500, they found themselves at 82-80 to finish the season, good for third in the Central.
To combat the biggest collapse in team history, the Brewers proceeded to have the quietest offseason in the division, and now find themselves as a potential bottom feeder in the Central. The team traded longtime ace Yovani Gallardo for prospects, while adding left-hander Neal Cotts in free agency and trading for Adam Lind. That wraps up any Milwaukee brewings this offseason.
It goes without saying that the Brewers are banking on big power improvements from Ryan Braun, as well as a healthy Lind upgrading a first base core that yielded sub-.700 OPS' in 2014 behind Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay. Braun should see an increase in power following thumb surgery -- hopefully that will keep him healthy in 2015.
Lind also looks to be a significant upgrade over Reynolds and Overbay, despite his inconsistent history, in which he had a .850+ OPS over the past two seasons, following three seasons of not eclipsing a .740 OPS. Although he figures to be an upgrade, he does have some durability questions.
If Braun and Lind can be productive alongside guys like Khris Davis and Aramis Ramirez, the Brewers seemingly have a formidable supporting cast for Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy. Both Gomez and Lucroy were five-win players in 2014, and are players that can be building blocks if they stay healthy. Lucroy was arguably the best catcher in the game in 2014, while Gomez is a potential 30/30 home run and stolen base guy, both of which play excellent defense.
The loss of Gallardo shouldn't be a huge problem considering the Brewers had four pitchers with an ERA+ of at least 100. Although none of them registered above a 110, having four league-average pitchers in a rotation is nothing to sneeze at. Without Gallardo, the Brewers still head into the season with at least three guys who should be league average or better, which will keep them in games. A guy like Mike Fiers, who had a 2.13 ERA in 10 starts last season, could also step in this season and give the rotation a boost.
All in all, the Brewers didn't really get better in 2015, but they aren't a whole lot worse. Playing in a tough division, it's tough to envision them being a serious contender. An 80- to 84-win season seems most likely, but without much depth, an injury or two could make for a long season.
