2015 National League Central Preview: The Powerhouse, Second Fiddle, and New Gun
Chicago Cubs
nERD: 0.01 | Projected Win-Loss: 81-81 | Division Odds: 10.6% | Playoffs Odds: 26.8%
The Chicago Cubs are poised to be one of baseball's most improved teams in 2015. Headlined by the acquisition of Jon Lester, the Cubs had a very productive offseason that saw the additions of Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan, and Miguel Montero. However, if the Cubs are going to make a run at the Central, it's going to come from within.
The Cubs head into 2015 uber talented at nearly every position. To start, they now tout a legitimate ace in Lester, and have guys like Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks to support him in what looks to be a great rotation.
All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo had a career year in 2014, where he hit 32 homers and registered a wOBA of .397, good for third best in the NL, behind only Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen. Shortstop Starlin Castro had a bounce-back year in 2014 following a disappointing 2013 season, hitting .292 with 14 home runs, all while improving his wOBA by 61 points.
Then come the studs. Second baseman Javier Baez was the first to arrive, appearing in 52 games in 2014. He struggled, striking out in over 40% of his at bats, but scouts slobber over his power, which was evident in his nine homers behind a 17% home run to fly ball ratio. He also hit just seven more line drives than homers, if you're into that kind of thing.
Outfielder Jorge Soler came up just a few weeks after Baez and had much more immediate success. In 24 games, Soler had a .281 Isolated Power and the 6'4'', 200-plus pounder reportedly comes into camp with 27 pounds of added muscle to his frame.
Although Soler might be the safest prospect of the bunch, third baseman Kris Bryant arguably has the most upside. In 2014, Bryant, in his first full professional season, hit 43 home runs while registering an eye-opening .335 Isolated Power. FanGraphs' scouting report has his raw power graded out at a scale topping 80, and his game power not far behind at 70. We could see Bryant as early as opening day if he has a solid spring and if incumbent Mike Olt struggles.
The Cubs are stacked with talent. However, talent can take time to develop, especially with position player and even more so with the power tool. For this reason, the Cubs are probably the single toughest team to project. If Lester dominates, Rizzo and Castro progress, and the pups develop quickly, the Cubs could be a sleeper in the division and a legitimate wild card contender. However, if Baez power doesn't translate, Bryant's development slows down, and Rizzo or Castro get hurt or take a step back, the Cubs are probably still a year or two away.
If nothing else, the Cubs will at least be fun to watch in 2015.