2015 National League Central Preview: The Powerhouse, Second Fiddle, and New Gun
St. Louis Cardinals
nERD: 0.38 | Projected Win-Loss: 87-75 | Division Odds: 37.0% | Playoffs Odds: 63.1%
Coming off of two straight Central titles, the Cardinals head into 2015 with virtually the same roster as in 2014, with the only real subtraction being the tragic death of Oscar Tavaras and the subsequent addition of Jason Heyward.
The addition of Heyward should give the Cardinals a good glove in the outfield -- something they've been lacking for quite some time -- as well as a strong top-of-the-lineup hitter. Heyward trailed only Billy Hamilton andAlex Gordon in Defensive fWAR, while leading all outfielders with 32 Defensive Runs Saved last year. His power has been declining since he hit 27 homers in 2012, and his labored swing would suggest he may never find that power again, but he is still a strong partner to pair with Matt Carpenter at the top of the lineup. His .351 OBP and 10% walk percentage, paired with Carpenters elite on-base skills, should give Matt Holliday and Matt Adams plenty of runners to drive in.
If he stays healthy, Yadier Molina should also be one of the game's best catchers in 2015. And although he may regress a bit, shortstop Jhonny Peralta is also a guy who will be a solid contributor in a lineup stacked with talent. From Carpenter in the lead-off spot to, potentially, Jon Jay in the nine-hole, you would be hard pressed to find a better lineup in all of baseball in terms of balance and lack of black holes offensively.
The rotation also returns many of its key contributors from 2014, headlined by ace Adam Wainwright, who is approaching an age that would suggest regression. However, given his late start as a Major League starting pitcher, he has less innings on his arm than many of his counterparts, and should beat the curve for at least a few more productive years.
The rotation also has solid arms in Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha, as well as, arguably, the league's best bargain in John Lackey. Lackey, who had a 3.82 ERA in 192 innings in 2014, is set to receive just $500,000 in 2015.
The 2015 Cardinals team is exactly what you would expect out of a Cardinals club: a legitimate contender. Although it should be a dogfight, our metrics give a slight edge to the Pirates in the Central. Despite the slight advantage in Pittsburgh's favor, the Cardinals, according to our power rankings, are still a top five team in all of baseball.
