MLB

MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/21/22

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Sep 21st, 2022

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+300)

In what shouldn't be a surprise, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a slate-high 5.26 implied run total tonight.

I know -- it's shocking to see the best team in baseball with a high implied run total. With that implies total comes the expectation of runs, and that means we are going to be looking at some player props from their lineup.

They are taking on Madison Bumgarner, a pitcher we've been consistently attacking all season via player props. There's no reason to stop now. This season, Bumgarner is allowing a .522 SLG, .373 wOBA, 4.80 FIP, 1.61 HR/9, 15.9% strikeout rate, 41.4% fly-ball rate, and 39.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed batters.

These are legitimately not only some of the worst numbers on tonight's slate but in all of the MLB. This puts several of LA's righties in a good spot, but I have my eye on Will Smith. He normally hits clean-up for the Dodgers and should have plenty of chances to knock one out.

Smith comes in with a 136 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .162 ISO, low 12.2% strikeout rate, 48.9% fly-ball rate, and 31.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. With that said, I'm adding Smith To Record an RBI (-105).

Mike Trout To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

I've heard this Mike Trout guy is pretty good.

Even money for one of the best players in the league? Sign me up!

Trout is coming off of two games where he didn't have a hit, which is rather unusual for him. We're due for some natural baseball variance, and it happens to be from an elite hitter.

Trout is rocking a 161 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .344 ISO, 61.5% fly-ball rate, and 34.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He brings plenty of power and can cash this prop with one swing of the bat. There's nothing not to like.

He's taking on Dane Dunning, who is allowing a .433 SLG, .335 wOBA, 1.31 HR/9, .315 BABIP, and 35.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Dunning has allowed six or more hits in five straight starts and simply doesn't have his best stuff on the mound right now.