Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers
Over/Under: 44.5
Chiefs Implied Team Total: 25.75
Chargers Implied Team Total: 18.75
This game might not have the high over/under that some of the other games do, but the spread fits two of the most intriguing fantasy players on each team very well.
Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Price: $5,400
Jamaal Charles might not play at all this week, and even if he does, it seems unlikely that he sees a large workload in a game the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to win. If Charles sits, Spencer Ware would be an excellent play based on talent and matchup, but what makes him an auto-play is the game script. The Chiefs currently sit as seven-point favorites, which makes them the second-largest favorites on the slate.
As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
Assuming the Chiefs jump out to a big lead at home like they are expected to, Ware could see tons of work as Kansas City runs down the clock. Against a San Diego Chargers defense that ranked second-to-last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play last season and allowed him to pile up 148 yards and 2 scores on 19 carries in 2015, Ware seems as close to a lock as there is if Charles is out.
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers
FanDuel Price: $7,400
Raybon also pointed out that receptions are the stat least correlated with game script, with losing teams actually averaging slightly more catches than winning teams. That suits Keenan Allen just fine as San Diego's target hog in a game they will likely be playing from behind in.
In his career, Allen has averaged 1.11 more FanDuel points on 0.5 more catches per game in contests that the Chargers were at least seven-point underdogs like they are this week.
The matchup certainly isn't great against a Chiefs defense that ranked as the fourth-best pass defense according to our metrics in 2015, but Allen's ability to play all over the field should at least keep him from seeing too much of Marcus Peters. Kansas City's other elite corner, Sean Smith departed this offseason, and elite pass rusher Justin Houston is sidelined, so their pass defense might not be quite as intimidating as it was last season.
Even with a sub-par matchup, game script favors Allen enough to put him in play as an interesting tournament option. A Ware-Allen stack makes a lot of sense if you envision a game script in which Kansas City is running with the lead and San Diego is passing to catch up.
Others to Consider
While it seems hard to imagine Philip Rivers against Kansas City in a week full of good quarterback plays, he has averaged 23.17 FanDuel points and 40.11 pass attempts since 2012 when he was at least a seven-point underdog, as opposed to 20.86 and 35.35 in all other games. Antonio Gates has seen his numbers remain relatively static in game scripts similar to this week's averaging just 0.3 more FanDuel points in the past four years when at least seven-point dogs. It would seem that the game script hypothetically favors Danny Woodhead with the Chargers playing from behind, but he has actually averaged 2.4 fewer FanDuel points when at least a seven-point underdog.
For the Chiefs, Travis Kelce has been targeted less frequently and scored fewer FanDuel points while playing as at least seven-point favorites over the past two seasons. The same was true for Jeremy Maclin last season, leaving Ware as likely the only advisable play from the Chiefs.
