Market Share Report: We Underestimated Matt Forte
The Ambiguity Persists in Baltimore
We got answers to most of our pressing questions on Sunday, bringing some clarity into the equation.
Then you get to the Baltimore Ravens, and you can feel the tears start to well.
Instead of providing us with any sort of resolution, they gave us the double-barreled middle fingers and forced us to attempt to draw conclusions from muddy data. Here are the numbers for their top four wide receivers on the day.
| Wide Receiver | Snap Rate | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 66% | 9 | 5 | 19 |
| Mike Wallace | 65% | 6 | 3 | 91 |
| Kamar Aiken | 53% | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| Breshad Perriman | 31% | 2 | 1 | 35 |
Both the snaps and targets favored Steve Smith, but he promptly turned them into a whopping 19 yards. Inefficiency can lead to decreased usage in the future, so it's hard to buy into the guy both categories say we should desire.
The person whose stock improved the most is clearly Mike Wallace. He hauled in a 66-yard touchdown and played only one snap fewer than Smith. A guy with Wallace's big-play abilities and a 17.7% market share would have value for daily leagues, and that seems to be where we're at with Wallace following Sunday's game.
As much as Wallace was a winner, Kamar Aiken was a big-time loser. Aiken produced well as the top receiver last year with Smith out, generating expectations that he could claim the top spot again this year. Instead, he logged fewer snaps than both Smith and Wallace and saw only two targets. He's the clear No. 3, and he's unusable in both season-long and daily formats until he changes that.
We don't get any clarity by looking at the running backs, either, as you can see here.
| Running Backs | Snap Rate | Rushes | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 50% | 10 | 3 |
| Terrance West | 44% | 12 | 2 |
Justin Forsett out-snapped Terrance West by four plays, and West out-touched Forsett by one. Again, there's not a lot here from a usage perspective about which to get excited.
The Ravens have a dream matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns in which we'll want to use their players for DFS. We just might not be able to do so with any confidence, outside of potentially utilizing Smith or Wallace in the passing game. Until we find some more clarity elsewhere, it may be one of those situations where we miss out on a big opportunity.
