Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 3

Avoid Mike Evans in Daily Fantasy Football

Mike Evans could end up making me eat crow over this one, but the data suggests that he is unlikely to meet his current FanDuel price.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by 5.5 points versus the Los Angeles Rams. The part that scares me is the low total of 42 points. Throughout his career in games with a total of 42 points or fewer, Evans has averaged 10.5 half-PPR points per game.

At his price of $8,000, you will want a bit more.

If we dig further, in games where the total was 42 points or fewer and the Bucs were favored, Evans averaged only 6.23 half-PPR points in those three instances.

According to Team Rankings, since 2015, games in which the Rams were underdogs, the total was only eclipsed in two out of the 10 games. If this game with a low total of 42 points doesn't go over, points will be really tough to find.

Our algorithm projects Evans to score 12.35 FanDuel points this weekend, ranking 16th among wideouts.

Evans' price tag of $8,000 ranks seventh among wide receivers, which is way too expensive for a player unlikely to finish among the top 10 wideouts.