5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 3
San Diego Chargers Passing Offense
Given the destruction they unleashed in Week 2, it isn't likely that the San Diego Chargers' passing offense will fly under the radar, but that doesn't mean we should be fading them in tournaments.
The Indianapolis Colts' secondary is a straight mess. Star cornerback Vontae Davis returned to practice Wednesday and could play Sunday, but five other defensive backs appeared on the injury report and are at risk of missing the game. Davis' return and that of defensive lineman Henry Anderson would be huge for the defense, but this is no small task for them either way.
Without Davis and Anderson, the Colts allowed Matthew Stafford to torch them for 23.28 Passing NEP, and then Trevor Siemian followed that up with 6.48 Passing NEP of his own in Week 2. Historically, Philip Rivers has been infinitely more efficient than both of those signal callers with seven top-10 seasonal finishes in Passing NEP per drop back, compared to one for Stafford and -- obviously -- none for Siemian.
The other thing working against the Colts is that their pass defense wasn't even stellar last year when Davis played 16 games and Anderson played nine. They finished 20th in Adjusted Passing NEP per drop back in 2015, and that's not a ranking that could completely slow Rivers and company.
Davis' return would, however, alter how we attack the Colts as it relates to stacking. Normally, Travis Benjamin would be the top choice. Before last Sunday's game got out of hand, Benjamin led the team with six targets through the first three quarters, topping Antonio Gates and Tyrell Williams, who both had four. Benjamin was a target hog after Keenan Allen went down in Week 1, and he would be the clear-cut top option if Davis were to miss Sunday's game.
If Davis can play, though, that would shift a lot of our focus toward Williams. He's sitting with an 18.0% market share through the first two games, and that's before we removed Allen's pre-injury targets. Williams flashed his explosion last week, and with Davis potentially focused on Benjamin, he could unleash said nastiness on the rest of the Colts' defense.
The one aspect of this offense in which some serious worry could be warranted is Antonio Gates. He has only played 59.6% of the team's snaps through the first two weeks -- the lowest rate of his career -- and he missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury. Even if he suits up, you're basically banking on a touchdown, and there are likely better options at the position despite the positive matchup.
