5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 4
Washington Rushing Offense
We mentioned earlier that the Washington passing game is likely to be superbly popular this week, and it's for good reason. You shouldn't be opposed to using Kirk Cousins, Jamison Crowder, or any of those other chaps. This also just happens to be a tremendous matchup for an improving Matt Jones.
Efficiency was not a positive subject for Jones last year. He finished the year ranked 38th in Success Rate of the 44 running backs with at least 100 attempts, and he had the worst Rushing NEP per carry in the entire league. It was fair to question whether he'd be able to hang onto his job this year, but things truly have gotten off to a good start.
Check out Jones' metrics through the first three weeks compared to where he was last year. Again, the 2015 ranks are out of 44 backs with 100 attempts, and the 2016 numbers are out of a sample of 34 backs with at least 25 carries.
| Category | 2015 Mark | 2015 Rank | 2016 Mark | 2016 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing NEP per Carry | -0.19 | 44th | -0.01 | 17th |
| Success Rate | 35.4% | 38th | 48.6% | 4th |
He's not only much improved relative to himself, but he's actually posting respectable league-wide marks. This is a different Matt Jones than we saw last year.
Washington seems to have realized that given how his role has morphed this season. While trailing in Week 1, Jones played just 32.8% of the snaps. That rose to 58.2% in a Week 2 loss, and in their first win last week, Jones had a 46.5% snap rate. That may seem low, but part of that is due to Jones' missing time on two separate occasions to be evaluated for an injury. Additionally, Washington trailed for a good chunk of that game, even by as much as 15 points in the first half. It wasn't necessarily the game script you look for in using Jones, but he should gain that this week against the Browns.
Overall, Cleveland's rush defense hasn't been bad this year, ranking 13th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play. However, they were 28th in that category last year, and the 7.5-point spread in Washington's favor is one conducive to a heavy dosage of pounding the rock. This defense isn't prohibitive against the rush, and Jones should see volume, making this a solid matchup for the second-year back.
It'll be hard to fade Cousins and the passing game given the positive regression they figure to see going forward. But if you want to do so while still attacking the Browns' defense, Jones is a low-cost avenue for such a venture.
