Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5

Start the Raiders' Defense Because of Line Movement

Let me preface this recommendation by saying that the Oakland D/ST should only be deployed if you are in a dire situation this weekend. According to Fantasy Data, they are currently ranked 30th in FanDuel scoring, averaging only 4 points per game. In fact, Oakland ranks 27th in the league against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.

The reason for recommending this struggling defensive unit is because of line movement.

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 5, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

On Sunday night, the total for this game opened at 52.5 points. Since then, it has dropped 3 points to 49.5. Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the line dropped 3 points or more, the average defensive score was 8.92 fantasy points per game, which is more than the league average of 7.44 points per game in 2015.

The total of 49.5 points is still high and will likely scare off most people. The Raiders currently cost $4,500 on FanDuel, the 12th-most expensive defense, and are worth starting in a tournament due to their lower cost and likely low ownership.