5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 6
Dallas Cowboys Passing Offense
The wind speeds in this game are only five miles per hour, and there's no chance of rain. On a slate brimming with doggy doo, this game is proof that your higher power of choice does not hate you.
Earlier in the year, it was hard to get excited about Dak Prescott for DFS for two reasons. First, the Dallas Cowboys are a slow team, a trend that has continued this year as they rank 28th in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. Second, they didn't draft Ezekiel Elliott to eschew the run, further limiting Prescott's volume.
Those two factors both become a bit less worrisome against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are ninth in situation-neutral pace, and they traditionally operate at a faster clip when they're at home. Additionally, the Packers are numberFire's top-ranked team against the run, meaning the Cowboys won't be able to just feed Zeke, rinse, and repeat. The volume will be there, and the efficiency should be, too.
Let's do a little blind resume test, shall we? Here are the NEP metrics of two separate quarterbacks this season. Which would you rather have?
| Player | Drop Backs | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback A | 162 | 0.35 | 55.56% |
| Quarterback B | 142 | 0.31 | 47.18% |
The gap in Passing NEP per drop back here is decent, but it's the Success Rate of Quarterback A that pops off the page. As a shock to nobody, Prescott is Quarterback A. Quarterback B is Carson Wentz, the rookie who has gotten more credit for his team's success between the two. We should be giving Dak more dap.
Although Prescott's numbers look great compared to Wentz's, they get a major boost when we compare him to the field. Prescott is third in the entire league in both Passing NEP per drop back and Success Rate among those with 50 drop backs, and he moves up to second in both if we increase the qualifying mark to 100 drop backs. It's not hyperbolic to say he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year.
While the Packers' rush defense has been tremendous, we can't say the same about their pass defense. They're currently 24th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, largely due to the tough injury for Sam Shields. Shields will change the defense when he's back, but it doesn't seem like that will happen this weekend.
No Shields, Cook, Banjo or Starks at practice. Lacy, Randall and Cobb did individual work #Packers pic.twitter.com/YDWRii7SkZ
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) October 12, 2016
If Shields does, indeed, sit again, Prescott will be in a prime spot for a quality output at the low price of $7,200 on FanDuel, and his upside would likely exceed that of the other guys in his price range.
The issue becomes deciding with whom to stack Dak, if anybody. Dez Bryant did return to practice on Wednesday and could play in Week 6, but do we want to trust him after a layoff? Can we live with the limited upside of Cole Beasley and Jason Witten? The question becomes a bit easier if Bryant sits and Brice Butler gets another shot at heavy snaps.
With Bryant on the sidelines the past two weeks, Butler has played at least 80% of the snaps and received two red zone targets in each game. Three of those red zone targets came inside the 10-yard line, so Prescott seems to trust Butler near the goal line. He may be risky with Terrance Williams also seeing work, but Butler would be the most-desirable stack candidate if you do decide you want to pair Prescott with someone in a tournament.
