5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 6

Seattle Seahawks Passing Offense

How chalky would the Seattle Seahawks be this week had they not had a bye in Week 5?

They torched the New York Jets two weeks ago with Russell Wilson throwing for 309 yards on just 32 attempts with 3 touchdowns. We know the Jets are bad, but this was when Wilson was coming off of a knee injury and hadn't topped 14 points the entire season. Now, Wilson has had a week to rest his lower body, the Seahawks are heading home, and they get another delectable matchup in Week 6.

The Seahawks will host the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, a team that has been generating plenty of positive buzz this year. Most of that buzz has centered around the offense (rightfully so), but the offense's success has covered up some serious shortcomings on the other side of the ball.

The Falcons enter Week 6 ranking 28th in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play, which accounts for their defense both against the pass and the rush. They're 23rd against the pass and 25th against the rush, meaning Christine Michael's in play, as well, but that pass defense may be even worse than it looks.

We generally expect passing offenses to be less efficient while they are trailing because the opponent knows they basically have no choice but to throw the ball. The Falcons have the second-lowest trail rate in the league, according to Football Outsiders, meaning they've had their opponents in these low-efficiency situations with regularity this year. Yet, they're still just 23rd against the pass. That's alarming, and it means that Wilson and company need to be on our radar this week.

If you're worried about how Wilson has played overall this year, you probably shouldn't be. Even with the knee and ankle injuries, Wilson ranks 10th in Passing NEP per drop back of the 36 quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs. The Falcons' pass rush isn't an issue -- they are 26th in Sack NEP per drop back -- and guard Germain Ifedi made his season debut in Week 4. Things are trending up for Wilson, and this is an absolutely ideal matchup for a team with a poor offensive line.

There are certain wide receivers we want to target when they're on the road, a spot where the team is likely to pass the ball more often. Doug Baldwin is not one of those guys. Check out his home/road splits from the past two years. Reception NEP is the expected points added on every reception, and Target NEP is the expected points added or subtracted each time the player is targeted. The "Fantasy Points" column is based on FanDuel's scoring rules, and this spans a sample of 10 games for each part of the split.

If we divide his Target NEP by the raw number of targets at home, we get a Target NEP per target of 0.94. Among receivers with at least 80 targets last year, only one topped 0.70 overall in this category, and only two were above 0.60. Baldwin is an outlier in how good he is, and that becomes even more true when he's at home. He's one of the best options at wide receiver on the entire slate.

The other guy in this offense we should consider is Jimmy Graham. After limited action in Week 1, Graham has a 21.6% target market share over the past three games, putting him one target ahead of Baldwin over that span. Graham's 66.7% snap rate in Week 4 is a bit lower than we'd like, but his renewed involvement in the passing game quells that concern enough to warrant a roster spot.

With this game -- and many others on the slate -- we do need to monitor the weather. Forecasts Wednesday night called for drizzle and a 14 mile-per-hour wind, in which case we'd be a lot more worried about the Seahawks. If the wind were to go down, though, then they'd be in position for a solid outing.