Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 6

Avoid the Texans Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 6, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

On Sunday night, the total for the Houston Texans home game against the Indianapolis Colts opened at 46 points. Since then, it has risen 2.5 points to 48.5. Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the line rose 2 points or more, the average defensive score was only 6.28 fantasy points per game, which is less than the league average of 7.44 points per game in 2015.

It's also worth noting that the Texans opened as 3.5-point favorites and it has dropped to 3. This may not seem like much, but moving to a 3 usually takes more money because it's considered a key number by bookmakers. A margin of victory of three points is actually the most common of all outcomes in NFL games.

The Texans defense may seem like a value -- priced only at $4,400 on FanDuel, 15th among defenses -- since they're playing at home versus a elite turnover-prone quarterback in Andrew Luck, but don't let their value fool you. They are worth benching in all formats.