Fantasy Football: 4 Things We Learned From Week 7

It's a Good Time to Sell High on Jeremy Hill

Riding the Jeremy Hill fantasy football roller coaster can be frustrating. His 2016 season thus far has been a campaign to see which of his two previous seasons is most representative of the real Jeremy Hill: his ultra-efficient rookie season or his plodding sophomore season.

Through Week 6, Hill had scored 10 PPR points in exactly one game. But in Week 7, Hill broke out for an astounding 168 yards rushing, to go with a touchdown, far outpacing teammate Giovani Bernard's 80-yard, 1-touchdown output.

And Hill's actually been pretty efficient on the year as a whole, registering a 0.14 Rushing NEP per rush.

But two things worry me about Hill moving forward.

First, while he has been efficient on the season, he still isn't moving the chains consistently, posting a 38.1% Rushing Success Rate. This falls short of Bernard's 39.4% Rushing Success Rate, which is roughly the league average. While not that much better, this may be part of the reason the coaching staff elected to have Bernard out-carry Hill 17 to 9 in Sunday's game.

Needless to say a reduction in touches isn't great when your fantasy output is so touchdown dependent like Hill's is.

Secondly, Hill rarely gets work in the passing game, having garnered only 10 targets on the season. That makes him far less valuable in PPR leagues, where Bernard typically makes his bread and butter.

Hill has a really nice matchup in Week 8 against the Washington Redskins' 23rd-ranked rush defense per our numbers. But if he fails to reach the end zone, his stat line is more likely to look similar to his output in five of the first six weeks of this season, ending your sell-high opportunity.

Deal Hill while his stock is at a high in order to gain some consistency and a safer fantasy floor.