5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 8
Oakland Raiders Passing Offense
Low-cost quarterback. High over-under. Bad opposing pass defense. The Oakland Raiders have got it all this week. We don't want to overthink this one.
Carr and the Raiders hit the road to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks 20th against the pass overall this season, but that number looks a bit less rosy once you give it some additional context. Starting quarterbacks to face the Bucs this year include Colin Kaepernick, Case Keenum, and Derek Anderson, while both Carson Palmer and Trevor Siemian gave way to backups at some point due to injuries. Basically, you'd expect the Buccaneers to be slaying things defensively, and that absolutely has not been the case.
If we go back to the checklist above, you'll notice that the quarterback on the other side of this matchup, Jameis Winston, also fits the criteria. Additionally, he's at home, and the Bucs are favored, two things we generally desire out of our quarterbacks in DFS. Why, then, would we favor Carr?
Carr has -- quite simply -- been a better quarterback this year.
Check out a comparison of the two through the lens of NEP. Passing NEP per drop back includes all expected points added or subtracted on a per-dropback basis while also subtracting points lost on sacks, and Success Rate is the percentage of drop backs that result in positive NEP.
| Quarterback | Dropbacks | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 271 | 0.22 | 47.2% |
| Jameis Winston | 252 | 0.06 | 47.2% |
Although their Success Rates are equal, Carr's overall efficiency has been over three times as high as Winston's. So while Winston is a fine play for DFS, there's a reason Carr holds a slight edge.
In large part thanks to his efficiency, Carr has been able to put forth some solid fantasy outings. He has topped 22 FanDuel points in four of seven games despite facing three of numberFire's top-10 ranked pass defenses. The Buccaneers are not that, and it puts Carr in a great spot to excel once again.
As far as stacks to go with Carr, both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are in play, but Crabtree is the more desirable option.
Crabtree currently ranks 4th in Reception NEP per target of the 50 receivers with at least 40 targets for the season, meaning he has done damage whenever Carr has looked his way. It's easy, then, to understand why Crabtree would have seven red-zone targets on the season compared to Cooper's six. Crabtree has turned four of those into touchdowns, and Cooper is yet to do so on a red-zone target this season.
Given Crabtree's efficiency and role close to the end zone, you'd assume he'd be the higher-owned of the two. Based on ownership percentages across all entries on FanDuel on a weekly basis, that's not remotely true. Cooper has been above 10% ownership six times this season. Crabtree has only been so once, and he has carried higher ownership than Cooper just once. People don't like using Crabtree, and that should only increase our excitement about plugging him in for this juicy matchup.
