5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10

Chicago Bears Passing Offense

When everything around you sucks, it's all right to soak in a little DGAF. And Smokin' Jay Cutler's here to save the day.

Cutler and the Chicago Bears fail to meet our general checklist for a quarterback in DFS. They're on the road, and they find themselves as underdogs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their implied team total is just 22.5, so what could be drawing us their direction?

It turns out the Buccaneers are just that bad.

They currently rank 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, which may seem underwhelming at first. That ranking, though, comes after matchups against juggernauts such as Case Keenum, Paxton Lynch, Derek Anderson, and Colin Kaepernick. Not exactly the best sample off of which to judge a defense.

In four games against competent passers, the Bucs have allowed all four to finish as top-six fantasy scorers at the position. This includes back-to-back performances in which they have allowed the best performance of the entire week to Derek Carr and Matt Ryan, respectively. We can argue Cutler's inclusion in the "competent" zone, but there's no debating how bad this defense truly is.

To Cutler's credit, his first performance after returning from his thumb injury was superb. He cranked out 12.34 Passing NEP, easily surpassing Marcus Mariota's high-water mark of 4.54 Passing NEP against that Minnesota Vikings defense. You could contend that they're not the same unit they were earlier in the year, but they held Matthew Stafford to just 0.45 Passing NEP in Week 9, a game after they faced Cutler.

Cutler did benefit from being at home at that game, but that hasn't really made a difference to him over the past two years. This table below shows his splits at home and on the road since the start of 2015, and he's basically the same guy.

Not only is his Passing NEP per drop back slightly higher, but his Success Rate gets a considerable boost. Putting him up against a defense like this should only help matters.

With regards to stacking, both Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller provide high-upside options who won't drain your salary.

We'll start with Miller, who has had at least eight targets in four of the past six games. His 23.6% target market share over the past three ranks third among all tight ends, giving him a higher floor than you generally find at the position.

If you look at what tight ends have done against the Buccaneers, it might not push you onto Miller. They've allowed only three touchdowns to them the entire year. However, the only heavily-involved tight end to oppose them this year is Greg Olsen, and he gashed them for 181 yards on 13 targets. Miller won't do that, but he's a solid option even without stacking Cutler.

It took the Bears a while to get Jeffery involved this year, but his role has been rock solid the past three games. Over that time, he has a 30.5% target market share, hitting double-digit targets twice and never dipping below eight. It seems as if his early-season stint in pergatory is up, and it's time to fire him into your lineups once again.