5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11
Buffalo Bills Rushing Offense
The odds are robust that LeGarrette Blount winds up as the most popular player on the slate given his juicy matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. The New England Patriots are 13-point favorites, and the 49ers have been hemorrhaging fantasy points to running backs all year. It makes too much sense not to happen.
But if you pay up just $200 more, you can get yourself a little pup named LeSean McCoy. And you can bet he won't be nearly as popular as ol' LeGarrette.
In McCoy's first game back from his hamstring injury in Week 9, he played 74.4% of the Buffalo Bills' snaps. It wasn't his highest mark of the year, but it's still 18.3 percentage points higher than any of Blount's snap rates this year with Tom Brady at quarterback. There's value in that. But Shady brings much more to the table than just his role as a three-down back.
McCoy currently ranks fifth in Rushing NEP per carry of the 37 running backs with at least 70 carries. He also ranks ninth in Success Rate, showing his contribution in the expected points category doesn't just stem from a couple of big runs.
Prior to McCoy's hamstring injury, few backs in football had a larger role than he did. He had at least 19 touches in each of the first six games, and that resulted in 100 yards from scrimmage or more in five consecutive outings. His passing-game involvement gave him a floor, and his talent gave him a ceiling.
This week, we can add a great matchup to his checklist. The opposing Cincinnati Bengals rank 25th against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics, and the Bills have been the league's most efficient rushing offense. This is a matchup over which we'd be foaming at the mouth if it weren't for Blount.
The obvious difference between the two that might make Blount the better play -- in a vacuum -- is game script. As mentioned, the Patriots are huge favorites while the Bills are 2.5-point underdogs. That's not a spread under which we'll generally want to chase running backs. Still, McCoy provides a bit of relief there.
McCoy has been healthy for three separate games this year that the Bills have wound up losing. In all three of them, he had at least four targets (and at least four receptions), so this isn't a guy who will simply disappear from the game plan if things get out of hand. As long as things stay close, we can assume he'll be a focal point of the offense.
Again, Blount's a good play, and his matchup this week is dreamy. But if I'm filling out a tournament lineup and want to avoid Blount's ownership, paying up for McCoy is an easy and high-upside alternative.
