Week 12 FanDuel Tournament Pivots

Quarterback

Chalk:

At the top end, Tom Brady figures to be popular with a slate-high implied team total against the New York Jets. Outside of Brady, both Marcus Mariota and Russell Wilson are playing well and are in great spots this week.

Pivot:

Drew Brees, $8,600 (vs Los Angeles Rams): Drew Brees is sandwiched in between Brady and Mariota price-wise and has a more difficult matchup than both. The Los Angeles Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks (15.6) and rank 10th in Adjusted (for strength of schedule) Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play.

However, this game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, where Brees has played much better in his career. Over the past four seasons, Brees has averaged 345 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns when playing at home as opposed to 295 and 1.8 on the road, per the RotoViz Game Splits App. The Saints also have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate (26.25 points), as Vegas has them listed as seven-point favorites. In 10 home games New Orleans has won by at least seven during that span, Brees has averaged a ridiculous 350 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns. He has similar upside to the other top passers on the slate and will have lower ownership than all of them.

Cam Newton, $7,800 (at Oakland Raiders): Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers have struggled mightily this season, but he gets a terrific bounce-back opportunity against the Oakland Raiders in Week 12. Oakland ranks seventh-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and has allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have posted those numbers despite facing just two top-10 quarterbacks (according to Passing NEP per drop back). Those two quarterbacks (Brees and Matt Ryan) averaged 410 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns against them.

Newton's $7,800 salary is tied for the lowest it's been over the past two seasons, and when combined with his impending low ownership, this get-right matchup against the Raiders provides us with one of the most unique buy-low opportunities we've had in DFS this season. There are too many good options to risk it in cash games, but Newton is a very exciting tournament pivot off of the likes of Russ Wilson, who should be immensely more popular at $7,500. Newton is also the second-best value at quarterback on this slate according to our models.