The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 12

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has an NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from the week with big value swings in one category, but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Kansas City Chiefs long snapper James Winchester recovers a muffed punt return by Denver Broncos’ Jordan Norwood (WP: +18.45, NEP: +4.75).
9. Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins slings 67-yard touchdown reception to wide receiver DeSean Jackson (WP: +13.08, NEP: +6.25).
8. Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin catches 44-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Cam Newton (WP: +18.79, NEP: +4.92).
7. Oakland Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack intercepts Carolina’s Cam Newton on the six-yard line, returning it for a score (WP: +13.07, NEP: +6.74).
6. Carolina linebacker Thomas Davis picks off Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr, returning the ball 31 yards (WP: +17.27, NEP: +5.33).

Now on to the top-five plays of the week!